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Tom Monto

2007 Scottish local authority elections - STV scores again

More examination of the

2007 Scotland local authority results where STV was applied


(front runner means in top three in 3-seat district or top four in 4-seat district.)


Things to notice 

Most front runners in the First Count were elected in the end.

Vote transfers seldom changed more than one. usually no change at all. Single voting in MMD already created balanced mixed rep.


never was someone less popular elected over someone more popular, popularity being measured at that exact moment. This is why the first thing holds true - usually the ones most-popular at the beginning remain the popular choice and thus are elected.


Election can come about through attaining the quota or by being most-popular at the end when plurality is used to fill last seat, or occasionally the last two seats.


parties may be identified but only for identification purpose.

Parties play no part in the vote counting.

Parties know they will not take many seats so most (or many anyway) run just one candidate in a district.


example Hazelhead ward (Aberdeen City)

only one party ran more than one candidate.

no party took more than one seat

peak votes of successful candidate  - the number of votes each has when elected - is usually about the same (around 1000). Where the peak vote is higher than that, you know that the candidate's votes were reduced to quota if still seats(s) remained to be filled.

6.9-FP-percent success

Counting First preference votes, we see in the Aberdeen district Torry ward that a candidate was elected after getting just 6.9 percent of votes placed in the 1st Count.


How she got enough votes to be elected - she eventually got 950, just shy of quota - is detailed below.



Aberdeen City


Hilton 3 seats  

11.9 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

"Turn-over"      16.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.


Tillydrone 3 seats

8.5 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

"Turn-over"      10.7-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.



Midstocket 3 seats

front runners ranged from 21 to 27 First Preference percentage 

all front runners elected in the end with quota.


George Street 4 seats 

 11.4 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

"Turn-over"      13.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.



Lower Deeside 3 seats

front runners ranged from 24 to 17 First Preference percentage 

all front runners elected in the end with quota.


Hazelhead 4 seats  13.2 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

all front runners elected in the end with quota.

quota 1548

peak votes 1967, 1618, 1650, 2238 of successful candidates

(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)


Airyhallseats  

21.1 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

all front runners elected in the end, one without quota.


Torry 4 seats  

6.9 percent elected lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

"Turn-over"      7.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.

quota 1000

peak votes 1646, 1023, 1138, 950 of successful candidates

(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)


together the two SNP candidates took 40 percent of vote in the 1st Count (2000 votes) so by that, party was eligible for 2 seats and it did win two seats.

6.9-percent FP candidate (SNP) was assisted by receiving vote transfers from the other SNP candidate after his election. (this infusion meant that the lesser SNP candidate was out of reach of eliminations -- he had risen to 4th place (including the successful SNP candidate).

the lesser SNP candidate was safe in the top four but also luckily for the lesser SNP candidate, there were five candidates of various parties or no parties that were even less popular than him - including two Independents and a Libertarian  - they were used up in the elimination stages, shielding the lesser SNP candidate from elimination, while also a good portion of their transfers went to the remaining (lesser) SNP candidate.


Kincorth 4 seats  

15.2    lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate

all front runners elected in the end, all with quota.

quota 960

peak votes of successful candidates range:  1465  to 966 

(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)

================================


Fife district 

although district divided into 23 wards electing three or four, still consistency and relative ranking was tight.

no party took more seats than a more-popular party.


Each party took a seat for about same number of voters:

Labour                     24 seats     40,000 votes           1700 per seat

SNP                         23 seats    39,000                     1700 per seat

Liberal Democrats  21 seats     31,000                    1500 per seat

Conservative             5 seats      15,000                   3000 per seat


of course, party that takes less seats will have more wasted because votes do not leave wards or districts (same as under FPTP's districts or wards)


In district round-up, we see Scottish Greens took 1900 votes and no seats - it is not stated over how many of the district's 23 wards, those 1900 votes were spread. (If they were spread over multiple candidates in the same ward, then vote transfers should have done the party some good.)


Buckhaven

has record for the succ. candidate with the least number of First preference votes.

only four times was a front runner in the 1st Count not elected in the end.


West Fife             4 seats   

front runners elected  15.6 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand


Dumferline North seats   

front runners elected  23.4 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Dumferline Central seats 

front runners elected  19 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand


Dumferline South 4 seats   

9 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand

1 "turn-over" 10.6-percent FP-vote cand not elected, 9-percent FP-vote cand elected


Rosyth  3 seats   

front runners elected  20.8 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Inverkeithing 4 seats 

 front runners elected  17.5 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Lochs  3 seats   

front runners elected  20.8 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Cowdonbeath  3 seats 

 front runners elected  18.9 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Lochgelly  3 seats   

front runners elected  23.4 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Burtisland  3 seats   

front runners elected  15.6 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Kirkcaldy North  3 seats   

front runners elected  17.4 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Kirkcaldy Central  3 seats   

front runners elected  19.1 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Kirkcaldy East  3 seats   

front runners elected  16.3 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Glenrothes West 4 seats   

front runners elected  19.1 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Glenrothes North 4 seats 

front runners elected 

11.7 lowest percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Glenrothes Central  3 seats 

front runners elected  13.4 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Howe of Fife  3 seats 

14.1 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand

1 "turn-over" 17 percent FP-vote cand not elected, 14-percent FP-vote cand elected


Tay   3 seats 

front runners elected  20.6 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


St. Andrews  3 seats 

front runners elected  11.8 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


East Neuk  3 seats  15 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand

1 "turn-over" 19 percent FP-vote cand not elected, 15-percent FP-vote cand elected


Cupar  3 seats 

front runners elected  18.9 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Leven   4 seats 

front runners elected 12 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand


Buckhaven   4 seats 

front runners elected     7.3 least percent of FP votes  taken by succ. cand

1 "turn-over" : 10.3 percent FP-vote cand not elected,

7-percent FP-vote cand (Labour) elected

the turn-over Labour candidate likely received vote transfers from his running mate (elected) and from the Independent who came in first in the 1st Count with almost two quotas.


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