More examination of the
2007 Scotland local authority results where STV was applied
(front runner means in top three in 3-seat district or top four in 4-seat district.)
Things to notice
Most front runners in the First Count were elected in the end.
Vote transfers seldom changed more than one. usually no change at all. Single voting in MMD already created balanced mixed rep.
never was someone less popular elected over someone more popular, popularity being measured at that exact moment. This is why the first thing holds true - usually the ones most-popular at the beginning remain the popular choice and thus are elected.
Election can come about through attaining the quota or by being most-popular at the end when plurality is used to fill last seat, or occasionally the last two seats.
parties may be identified but only for identification purpose.
Parties play no part in the vote counting.
Parties know they will not take many seats so most (or many anyway) run just one candidate in a district.
example Hazelhead ward (Aberdeen City)
only one party ran more than one candidate.
no party took more than one seat
peak votes of successful candidate - the number of votes each has when elected - is usually about the same (around 1000). Where the peak vote is higher than that, you know that the candidate's votes were reduced to quota if still seats(s) remained to be filled.
6.9-FP-percent success
Counting First preference votes, we see in the Aberdeen district Torry ward that a candidate was elected after getting just 6.9 percent of votes placed in the 1st Count.
How she got enough votes to be elected - she eventually got 950, just shy of quota - is detailed below.
Aberdeen City
Hilton 3 seats
11.9 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
"Turn-over" 16.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.
Tillydrone 3 seats
8.5 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
"Turn-over" 10.7-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.
Midstocket 3 seats
front runners ranged from 21 to 27 First Preference percentage
all front runners elected in the end with quota.
George Street 4 seats
11.4 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
"Turn-over" 13.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.
Lower Deeside 3 seats
front runners ranged from 24 to 17 First Preference percentage
all front runners elected in the end with quota.
Hazelhead 4 seats 13.2 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
all front runners elected in the end with quota.
quota 1548
peak votes 1967, 1618, 1650, 2238 of successful candidates
(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)
Airyhall 3 seats
21.1 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
all front runners elected in the end, one without quota.
Torry 4 seats
6.9 percent elected lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
"Turn-over" 7.8-FP percent front runner not elected in the end.
quota 1000
peak votes 1646, 1023, 1138, 950 of successful candidates
(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)
together the two SNP candidates took 40 percent of vote in the 1st Count (2000 votes) so by that, party was eligible for 2 seats and it did win two seats.
6.9-percent FP candidate (SNP) was assisted by receiving vote transfers from the other SNP candidate after his election. (this infusion meant that the lesser SNP candidate was out of reach of eliminations -- he had risen to 4th place (including the successful SNP candidate).
the lesser SNP candidate was safe in the top four but also luckily for the lesser SNP candidate, there were five candidates of various parties or no parties that were even less popular than him - including two Independents and a Libertarian - they were used up in the elimination stages, shielding the lesser SNP candidate from elimination, while also a good portion of their transfers went to the remaining (lesser) SNP candidate.
Kincorth 4 seats
15.2 lowest First Preference percentage of successful candidate
all front runners elected in the end, all with quota.
quota 960
peak votes of successful candidates range: 1465 to 966
(due to after-success transfers of surplus votes, peak votes may overlap.)
================================
Fife district
although district divided into 23 wards electing three or four, still consistency and relative ranking was tight.
no party took more seats than a more-popular party.
Each party took a seat for about same number of voters:
Labour 24 seats 40,000 votes 1700 per seat
SNP 23 seats 39,000 1700 per seat
Liberal Democrats 21 seats 31,000 1500 per seat
Conservative 5 seats 15,000 3000 per seat
of course, party that takes less seats will have more wasted because votes do not leave wards or districts (same as under FPTP's districts or wards)
In district round-up, we see Scottish Greens took 1900 votes and no seats - it is not stated over how many of the district's 23 wards, those 1900 votes were spread. (If they were spread over multiple candidates in the same ward, then vote transfers should have done the party some good.)
Buckhaven
has record for the succ. candidate with the least number of First preference votes.
only four times was a front runner in the 1st Count not elected in the end.
West Fife 4 seats
front runners elected 15.6 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Dumferline North 3 seats
front runners elected 23.4 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Dumferline Central 4 seats
front runners elected 19 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Dumferline South 4 seats
9 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
1 "turn-over" 10.6-percent FP-vote cand not elected, 9-percent FP-vote cand elected
Rosyth 3 seats
front runners elected 20.8 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Inverkeithing 4 seats
front runners elected 17.5 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Lochs 3 seats
front runners elected 20.8 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Cowdonbeath 3 seats
front runners elected 18.9 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Lochgelly 3 seats
front runners elected 23.4 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Burtisland 3 seats
front runners elected 15.6 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Kirkcaldy North 3 seats
front runners elected 17.4 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Kirkcaldy Central 3 seats
front runners elected 19.1 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Kirkcaldy East 3 seats
front runners elected 16.3 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Glenrothes West 4 seats
front runners elected 19.1 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Glenrothes North 4 seats
front runners elected
11.7 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Glenrothes Central 3 seats
front runners elected 13.4 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Howe of Fife 3 seats
14.1 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
1 "turn-over" 17 percent FP-vote cand not elected, 14-percent FP-vote cand elected
Tay 3 seats
front runners elected 20.6 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
St. Andrews 3 seats
front runners elected 11.8 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
East Neuk 3 seats 15 lowest percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
1 "turn-over" 19 percent FP-vote cand not elected, 15-percent FP-vote cand elected
Cupar 3 seats
front runners elected 18.9 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Leven 4 seats
front runners elected 12 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
Buckhaven 4 seats
front runners elected 7.3 least percent of FP votes taken by succ. cand
1 "turn-over" : 10.3 percent FP-vote cand not elected,
7-percent FP-vote cand (Labour) elected
the turn-over Labour candidate likely received vote transfers from his running mate (elected) and from the Independent who came in first in the 1st Count with almost two quotas.
=======================================
Kommentare