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Tom Monto

2019 federal election low turn-out, split vote means Trudeau re-elected by 20% of voters

Updated: Aug 23

Here's some election stats courtesy of the Communist Party Marxist-Leninist party newsletter, just in case it happens that any of you are not on that party's distribution list: In rounded figures, out of 27.4 million voters on the Final List of Electors, 17 million cast ballots, amounting to 62.25 per cent of registered electors. This is referred to as the “popular vote.” The percentage will fluctuate down slightly once the number of people who registered on polling day is added. However, any way you put it, the fact is that more than 10 million registered electors chose to not cast a ballot at all. The electoral body does not inform how many spoiled their ballots but those who did not cast a ballot constitute more than one third of eligible voters. The Liberals will now form another minority government on the basis of 5.5 million votes out of 17 million votes cast. This means they will form their government with the lowest-ever share of the popular vote, 32.6 per cent. This, in turn, constitutes 20. 3 per cent of the eligible vote which the leader of the Liberal Party who becomes the Prime Minister of the country claimed is a “clear mandate.” With this result, the Liberals have surpassed their own low record of 33.1 per cent of the popular vote in 2019. Prior to that, in recent elections, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives formed a minority government in 2006 with what used to be called the “slimmest popular vote” ever with 36.3 per cent of the valid votes.[1] Furthermore, the Liberals will form the government even though the Conservatives won the popular vote, beating the Liberal count by about 160,000 votes. Their 119 seats were won with 33.7 per cent of the valid votes, or 20.9 per cent of the registered voters. The NDP’s 25 seats are the result of approximately 3 million votes, or 17.8 per cent of the valid votes; 11.1 per cent of registered voters. The Greens won 2 seats with 397,565 votes cast across the country, 2.3 per cent of the ballots cast; 1.5 per cent of those registered. According to the Canadian Press (CP) report on the election results: “Voter turnout in federal election [was] about average despite pandemic challenges.” This clearly belittles the serious crisis of legitimacy party governments and the liberal democratic institutions which serve the rule of the financial oligarchy face. The fact is that voter turnout has seen a precipitous decline throughout the past thirty years since the November 1988 election which brought Brian Mulroney to power. Voter turnout in that election was 75.3 per cent as people got involved to oppose the ratification of the free trade agreement with the United States and oppose the GST. Since then, and especially since the Liberal Party of Jean Chrétien reneged on its electoral promises, the declaration that representative democracy works and provides party governments with the consent of the governed is not warranted... Keep in mind that the national picture also does not take into account constituencies and entire regions where the turnout is almost equal to, or less than, the number of electors choosing not to vote. How can governments claim to represent people in these locations? For instance, the Ontario riding of Ajax had a turnout of 53.5 per cent of eligible voters; Markham–Unionville, 51.4 per cent; and Brampton South of 54.5 per cent. In Nunavut, voter turnout was 34.11 per cent of eligible voters; in the North-West Territories it was 46.7 per cent. The democratic institutions require renewal. Attempts to say they are vibrant and worthy of defending are falling on deaf ears. Notes 1. Figures prepared by Simon Fraser University show the ten lowest government shares of the popular vote, ranging from 32.6 in this election to 39.0 per cent in the 1957 and 39.5 per cent in the 2015 election. The percentage of historically low votes received by the party which formed the government by year of federal election is as follows: 2021: 32.6 per cent; 2019: 33.1; 2015: 39.5; 2008: 37.6; 2006: 36.3; 2004: 36.7; 1997: 38.5; 1979: 35.9; 1972: 38.5; 1962: 37.3; 1957: 39.0


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