Here's brief summary of my findings on the 2021 Canadian election, presented in full farther below. In FPTP, thousands and thousands of votes are ignored in every district. With at least four and as many as 21 candidates running in each district, the votes can be very differently spread from district to district. Sometimes one candidate takes as much as 76 percent of the votes and sometimes no candidate takes more than 30 percent of the vote. Successful candidates won with a widely different number of votes, from 11,103 to 44,456. And thus receiving a number of votes from 11,103 to 44,000 could mean you win or that you lose - there is no way to judge by the mere number of votes - not a scientific way to decide those elected. Within that range, your votes, the measure of your popularity, is not as important as its relationship to the number of votes received by the leading candidate in the riding. If another candidate receives more than you, no matter how popular you are, he or she (and not you) will be declared elected, to take the district's one seat. The lowest percentages received by successful candidates was 29 percent in Nanaimo and 30 percent in Trois Rivieres (QU), but some in each province were elected with no more than 42-45 percent, often in the 30 percentiles. Less than one third of the votes were used in these districts to elect anyone. (Saint Boniface (MN) had record number of candidates (21), a deliberate scheme to raise awareness of the absurdity of the single-member districts used in our electoral system. Winner won with 44 percent of the vote. All but a handful of the candidates received less than 100 votes.) Minority-vote winners out-numbered majority-vote winners Only about a third of the 338 MPs were elected by a majority of the votes in their districts. The provincial break-down: majority vote winners minority vote winners NF 2 5 NS 2 9 PEI 1 3 NB 4 6 Quebec 33 45 Ontario 35 86 MN 6 8 SK 8 6 AB 23 11 BC 5 37 119 219 The winning candidates received less than half the votes cast in the election. The successful candidates altogether received 8.2M votes of the 16,996,000 votes cast. (The winners received 8,151,212 votes) 8.8M votes were ignored and not used to elect anyone. (The specific number ignored was 8,839,862 votes. (Any of these numbers may change slightly with late revisions.) Souris (SK) the leading candidate took 76 percent of the vote. This was the largest percentage received by a successful candidate anywhere in Canada. (This was not due to a low turn-out. 39,625 of the district's 51,485 votes voted - a turn-out of 77 percent, one of the highest in the country.) Looking at candidate's votes, the winning candidate in Davenport won by just 76 votes (smallest lead anywhere in Canada). Many others won by less than 200 votes. While in other districts, votes were wasted by one candidate winning by amassing a massive lead over the nearest contender. The votes could have been used by other candidates of same party to be elected as well. The lead of the winner in Foothills - 37,339 votes - was the largest in Canada, and had more votes than many winners received in total and had more votes than were cast for all candidates in many ridings. This riding also saw a candidate take the largest number of votes in the country. In Foothills (Alberta) the leading candidate had 44,456 votes (69 p.c. of district vote). (64,216 valid votes were cast in this district.) Meanwhile, the winner in Kenora (ON) (43 percent of district vote) received just 11,103 votes and the winner in Timmins (ON) received just 12,1432 votes. District votes largest As expected, two are to be found in Toronto: Parkdale 52,543 valid votes (eligible voters 80,265 -- turn-out 65 percent) Parkdale is only 16 sq. kms. in size. Toronto - St. Paul 46,949 valid votes (eligible voters 82,707 -- turn-out 57 percent) People are densely packed here - the whole riding has only 14 sq. kms. the least number of votes cast in a district was in Labrador where 9747 voted. (Labrador had 9653 valid votes.) It has 20,182 eligible voters -- Turn-out there was 48 percent, lower than the Canada-wide average of 62 percent. The people are sparse in this riding. To cover as many people as possible, it is immense in size, covering 294,000 square kms. In Charlottetown, only 19,000 people voted in 2021. A Liberal won there with 8918 votes (47 percent of the vote). Of all the ridings in Canada, Niagara Falls,(Ontario) had the most eligible voters - 114,698. (Its area is only 579 sq. kms.) 71,295 voted in Niagara Falls in 2021 Turn-out was 62 percent. This was average for the turn-out across the country. ============== FPTP is not vote-total-based - people are declared elected based on comparison to others, not just due to candidate's own vote total compared to overall votes cast as quota would due. But districts do vary in size and number of eligible voters. Here are some imaginative "what-ifs" concerning this variation. Voters Canada has 27.4M eligible voters (27,366,297). If every district had the same number of voters as Niagara Falls, Canada would have 239 districts. If every district had the same number of voters as Labrador, Canada would have 1356 districts. Average district If every district had the same number of voters as Parkdale, Canada would have 239 districts. Thus Parkdale's 80,265 voters are very close to average. Area Canada is 9.98M square kilometres in area (9,984,670 sq. kms.) If every district was the same size as Parkdale, Canada would have 624,000 districts. If every district was the same size as Labrador, Canada would have 34 districts. Average district: 30,000 square kms. would be the area of a riding if the area of Canada was spread equally over 338 ridings. Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner is about that average size. 39 districts are larger than average. Many ridings are small and to average it out, a few are very, very, very large. Labrador has a size about 10 times the average, and there are eight districts larger than that. These include the three Territories, each of which has just one MP. The two largest territories - Nunavut and NWT - each with just one MP hold 3.4M sq. kms or just a bit less than a third of the entire country. ************************** The raw date for my analysis is shown in riding results in these on-line article: Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding - Wikipedia see also September 20, 2021 Election Results – Elections Canada This page also is very useful: Population of Canadian federal ridings - Wikipedia ============================= As reported in other PR emails, 24 percent did not vote for reason that "my vote does not change anything" This percentage shows either that people do not understand our electoral system or understand it all too well. A statistical look of the recent Canadian election (shown below) shows that more votes were ignored than used to elect anyone and that most MPs were elected by only a minority of the votes in their districts. And we see that a single vote hardly ever makes any difference. But if many voters grow disenchanted and don't vote, the votes that are missing become more and more - well - missed. A single vote does not matter because no candidate won with just one vote. That is not to say one should not vote but instead that one should both vote under the existing system and do what one can to push for PR so votes do count. In FPTP, thousands and thousands of votes are ignored in every district. The raw date for my analysis (below) is shown in riding results in these on-line article: Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding - Wikipedia see also September 20, 2021 Election Results – Elections Canada This page also is very useful: Population of Canadian federal ridings - Wikipedia
==================== Take for example Edmonton Centre A Liberal won with 34 percent of the vote. His 17,000 supporters took all the representation in the district (the one seat) while 32,500 voters were ignored. Turn-out 63 percent 29,621 eligible voters did not vote This was more than voted for the winner! Edmonton Wetaskiwin A Conservative won with 56 percent of the vote. His 48,000 supporters took all the representation in the district (the one seat) while 38,503 valid votes were ignored. (576 votes were rejected.) Turn-out 66 percent. 43,988 eligible voters did not vote This was almost more than voted for the winner! Edmonton Griesbach A NDP won with 41 percent of the vote. His 17,000 supporters took all the representation in the district (the one seat) while 25,602 voters were ignored. (495 votes were rejected.) Turn-out 54 percent 37,503 eligible voters did not vote This was more than voted for the winner! These three districts in Edmonton area sort of by accident provided a variety of representation, with MPs of three different parties elected but 96,605 valid votes cast in the three districts were ignored. In these three districts only 82,000 votes were used to elect anyone. Many thousands of votes are ignored in each district. Although the districts are organized relatively fairly - at least not too much radically different in size (except where population is extremely sparse) - there is wide variation in voter turn-out and in how votes are spread among the candidates. With at least four and as many as 21 candidates running in each district, the votes can be very differently spread from district to district. Sometimes one candidate takes as much as 76 percent of the votes and sometimes no candidate takes more than 30 percent of the vote. So even if voter turn-out was the same from district to district - and it isn't - the most popular candidate in a district - the only one that will be elected - could have wide range of proportion and number of votes. With successful candidates winning with such a widely different number of votes, candidates receiving any number of votes from 11,103 to 44,456 may be elected or not depending on how many votes the leading candidate receives. The following stand-outs show this wide range. Winners' percentage -- lowest The lowest percentage of the vote found to be enough to elect anyone was: By province: NF Labrador 42 percent NS Sydney 39 percent PEI Malpeque 42 percent NB Fredericton 37 percent Quebec Berthier 35 percent Beauport-Limoilou 31 percent Trois Riviers 30 percent (lowest winner's percentage in Canada, other than Nanaimo) Ontario Sudbury 34.5 percent Hamilton Mountain 34.2 percent Windsor 31.8 percent MN Charleswood 40.0 Kildonan 41.8 percent (Saint Boniface had record number of candidates (21), a deliberate scheme to raise awareness of the absurdity of the single-member districts used in our electoral system. Winner won with 44 percent of the vote. All but a handful of the candidates received less than 100 votes.) SK Saskatoon West 45.4 percent AB Edmonton Centre 33.7 percent Edm-Mill Woods 37.9 percent BC West Vancouver 34 percent Vancouver Granville 34 percent Nanaimo 29 percent (the lowest percentage used to elect anyone) This meant a great majority of the votes were ignored due to vote splitting. Minority-vote winners out-numbered majority-vote winners Only about a third of the 338 MPs were elected by a majority of the votes in their districts. The provincial break-down: majority vote winners minority vote winners NF 2 5 NS 2 9 PEI 1 3 NB 4 6 Quebec 33 45 Ontario 35 86 MN 6 8 SK 8 6 AB 23 11 BC 5 37 119 219 The winning candidates received less than half the votes cast in the election. The successful candidates altogether received 8.2M votes of the 16,996,000 votes cast. (The winners received 8,151,212 votes) 8.8M votes were ignored and not used to elect anyone. (The specific number ignored was 8,839,862 votes.) Winners' Proportion-- Largest The highest percentage of the vote found to be enough to elect anyone was: NF St. John's South... 56.2 percent NS Dartmouth 53 percent PEI Cardigan 50.6 percent NB Acadie 64.8 percent Quebec Bourassa 61 percent Saint Leonard 69 percent Ontario Don Valley East 60 percent Humber River 61 percent Scarborough North 67 percent MN Brandon 59.6 percent SK Cypress Hills 72 percent Souris 76 percent (the largest percentage received by a successful candidate anywhere in Canada) (This is not due to a low turn-out. 39,625 of the district's 51,485 votes voted - a turn-out of 77 percent, one of the highest in the country.) AB Battle River 71 percent BC Prince George 60.7 percent Winners' Lead -- Smallest NF Coast of Bays 281 votes NS Halifax 1558 votes Sydney 1084 votes PEI Malpeque 2076 votes NB Fredericton 502 votes Quebec Trois-Rivieres 92 votes Brome 197 votes Coast of Bays 281 votes Ontario Davenport 76 votes (smallest lead anywhere in Canada) Sault St. Marie 247 votes Kitchener-Conestoga 577 votes Hamilton Mountain 842 votes Kitchener-South 947 votes MN Churchill 3118 votes Charleswood 460 votes SK Saskatoon West 2051 AB Edmonton Centre 1774 Edmonton Griesbach 1500 BC Richmond Centre 772 Vancouver Granville 431 Winner's Lead - largest The largest lead of winner over nearest contender, was : NF Avalon 6000 votes NS Cardigan 4358 votes NB Acadie 21,901 votes Quebec Avignon 12,000 ca. Bellechase 18,000 32,000 to 15,000 Louis St. Laurent 20,000 votes Saint-Leonard 24,629 votes (29,010 to 4381) Ontario Stormont 16,812 votes Orleans 17,401 votes (39,000 to 22,000) Scarborough-Rouge Park 19,074 votes Elgin-Middlesex 19,146 votes Haliburton 19,773 votes MN Dauphin 17,040 votes Portage 17,751 votes Selkirk 18,704 votes SK Cypress Hills 20,000 ca. Souris 26,942 AB Battle River 36,058 (58,920 valid votes - leader had 41,819 (71 p.c.); second place candidate had 5761 votes (10 p.c.) (eligible voters 80,532; Turn-out 73 percent) Foothills 37,339 (64,216 valid votes - leader had 44,456 (69 p.c.); second place candidate had 7117 votes (11 p.c.)) (eligible voters 88,559 Turn-out 73 percent) Sturgeon River-Parkland 62 percent of the vote. (won by lead of 28,425) Calgary Midnapore 61 percent (won by lead of 27,321) BC Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies 61 percent (won by lead of 23,235) The lead of the winner in Foothills - 37,339 votes - was the largest in Canada, and had more votes than many winners received in total and had more votes than were cast for all candidates in many ridings. This is a form of waste as the un-needed votes could have been used by another candidate to win. Winners' votes - least 11,103 Kenora (ON) (43 percent of district vote) (eligible voters 45,500; total votes 26,201; valid votes 26,083; turn-out 56 percent) 12,132 Timmins (ON) (35 percent of vote) (eligible voters 63,041; total votes 34.925; valid votes 34,570; turn-out 55 percent) These two ridings compared: Timmins has about 50 percent more eligible voters than Kenora, Turn-out percentage-wise was about the same, so about one-third more votes voted in Timmins than Kenora. Timmins had a couple hundred more rejected votes than Kenora. Leader took higher percentage of votes in Kenora than the leader did in Timmins so that about evened up the vote tallies. Each winning candidate won with a minority of the vote in their district. Winners' votes - most Foothills (Alberta) the leading candidate had 44,456 votes (69 p.c. of district vote). This gave him a lead of 37,339 votes. (64,216 valid votes were cast in this district.) District votes -- least the least number of votes cast in a district was in Labrador where 9747 voted. (Labrador had 9653 valid votes.) It has 20,182 eligible voters -- Turn-out there was 48 percent, lower than the Canada-wide average of 62 percent. The people are sparse in this riding. To cover as many people as possible, it is immense in size, covering 294,000 square kms. In Charlottetown, only 19,000 people voted in 2021. A Liberal won there with 8918 votes (47 percent of the vote). In Kenora (ON), only 26,000 voted. The low vote count in these districts are is in part due to low turn-out but mostly due to small number of eligible voters in the district . Both turn-out and the number of eligible voters vary district to district. (This does not include Territory districts) District votes - most The largest number of votes cast in any district were cast in Toronto districts and oddly enough in two ridings in Alberta. As expected two are to be found in Toronto: Parkdale 52,543 valid votes (eligible voters 80,265 -- turn-out 65 percent) Parkdale is only 16 sq. kms. in size. Toronto - St. Paul 46,949 valid votes (eligible voters 82,707 -- turn-out 57 percent) People are densely packed here - the whole riding has only 14 sq. kms. Another large vote count was seen in semi-rural Battle River (Alberta) where 58,660 valid votes were cast. This is a far-flung riding covering 52,000 sq. kms. and it has 81,000 eligible voters. Another large vote count was in Foothills (Alberta) where 64,487 votes were cast. The district had 88,559 eligible votes and a large percentage of them voted - 73 percent. These high vote counts were in part due to high turn-outs and also to a large number of eligible voters in the districts. Both vary district to district. (This does not include Territory districts) Of all the ridings in Canada, Niagara Falls,(Ontario) had the most eligible voters - 114,698. (Its area is only 579 sq. kms.) 71,295 voted in Niagara Falls in 2021 Turn-out was 62 percent. This was average for the turn-out across the country. Districts compared Voters Canada has 27.4M eligible voters (27,366,297). If every district had the same number of voters as Niagara Falls, Canada would have 239 districts. If every district had the same number of voters as Labrador, Canada would have 1356 districts. Average district If every district had the same number of voters as Parkdale, Canada would have 239 districts. Thus Parkdale's 80,265 voters are very close to average. Area Canada is 9.98M square kilometres in area (9,984,670 sq. kms.) If every district was the same size as Parkdale, Canada would have 624,000 districts. If every district was the same size as Labrador, Canada would have 34 districts. Average district: 30,000 square kms. would be the area of a riding if the area of Canada was spread equally over 338 ridings. Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner is about that average size. 39 districts are larger than average. Many ridings are small and to average it out, a few are very, very, very large. Labrador has a size about 10 times the average, and there are eight districts larger than that. These include the three Territories, each of which has just one MP. The two largest territories - Nunavut and NWT - each with just one MP hold 3.4M sq. kms or just a bit less than a third of the entire country. ====================================================== 2021 Canadian election
of the 17M votes cast in the election, only 8,151,212 were used to elect anyone.
The rest were ignored when it came to filling the seats.
What if we ignore them and just look at the "effective votes" when we analyse the election?
We find these results:
The parties' effective votes, province by province
Liberal Conservative NDP Green BQ
NF 90,000 15,000 0 0 0
NS 161,000 60,000 0 0 0
PEI 39,000 0 0 0 0
NB 128,000 72,000 0 0 0
Quebec 808,000 281,000 0 0 793,000
Ontario 1.9M 1M 92,000 18,000 0
MN 81,000 158,000 43,000 0 0
SK 0 305,000 0 0 0
AB 37,000 1M 49,000 0 0
BC 299,000 345,000 311,000 25,000 0
NUN 0 0 3000 0 0
NWT 5000 0 0 0 0
Yukon 6000 0 0 0 0
TOTALS 3,510,000 3,304,000 526,000 43,000 793,000
SEATS 159 119 25 2 33
Eff. votes per seat 19,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 26,000
We see here that the Liberal party received more effective votes than the Conservatives although in votes cast Conservatives received more. This is due to Liberals winning more seats.
Due to the succession of Liberal victories, based on local dominance, fewer of their votes were ignored.
Why did the large number of Conservative votes not result in more victories?
because a large portion of the Conservative vote was concentrated in just one province, a sparely-populated province with only about ten percent of the Canada's seats.
We do see fair consistency party to party.
Each party took about a seat for each 20,000-odd votes it had.
Liberals who won largely in cities did not suffer from the large number of voters in the urban districts. Nor did the Conservatives benefit from the relatively few number of voters in the the rural districts where they were strongest. (So the rural-urban disparity does not appear to be powerful in and of itself.)
This holds true for each province across the country except PEI where 40,000 votes were enough for Liberals to take four seats.
The votes counts in Alberta are worthy of special attention. About 1M Conservative votes were cast in Alberta where just ten percent of Canada's seats are. These votes were about 1/5th of the party's total across the country. The Conservative party received one Alberta seat for each 33,000 votes. This it seems is what denied the Conservative party its lead in seats over the Liberal party that its lead in votes should have given it.
Looking at it province by province, we see that Conservative took a seat for each 34,000 votes in Alberta, far above the average. (This was due to large majorities of some of the Conservative winners.)
The parties' percentage of effective votes is very similar to their seat counts.
The Liberal are over-represented and the Conservatives are under-represented. (Alberta explains that.)
percent of effective votes seats percent. of seats
Liberal 43 159 47
Conservative 40 119 36
NDP 6.4 25 7
Green .5 2 1
BQ 10 9
100 338 100
Aside from the Alberta/Conservative discrepancy, the parties' tallies of seats are very proportional to the parties' Effective Votes.
So it seems by and large that the problem is not with unfair distribution of seats or gerrymandering, but with the election system itself. Each party's effective votes varied considerably from the votes cast for the party. For example, while the NDP took 7 percent of the effective votes and 7 percent of the seats, it took 18 percent of the votes cast. Thus we need to ensure that more of the votes cast count - that they are used effectively, that they elect someone. This can be done by using all votes cast to calculate top-up members in MMP. Or adopting multi-member districts. Now all votes cast for candidates other than the single winner in each district are ignored. That is the main shortcoming of our election system today.
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