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Tom Monto

2024 BC election PR analysis

Overall no party got majority of votes in the 2024 BC election,

And no party took a majorty of seats so at least that is fair.


Leading party, the NDP, got the most seats but not a majority of seats.


Greens with two seats (the product of 8 percent of the vote, which should have given the party 7 seats) hold balance of power.


The Conservatives and the NDP are both just one or two seats short of majority.

Likely Greens will give support to the NDP, and hopefully IMO they will demand proportional representation.


And bring in PR without a referendum -

Making electoral change without referendum is the same process by which BC got FPTP/Block voting in 1950s and the same process by which BC went to straight FPTP in 1990s.

Such a move would be a late but still fair response to the 2005 referendum when a majority of votets did vote for STV.


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PR could be as simple as voters in cities could be grouped to make multi-member districts, using the whole city - even Vancouver only has 12 MLAs.

and settled rural districts could be joined together to make three-seat districts.

BC had extensive experience of using multi-member districts in past.


leaving largest sparely-settled districts as single-member districts.


Give each voter one vote, and allow voters to mark back-up preferences.


STV in MMDs would produce fair balanced representation and ensure that a large proportion of votes are used to elect someone.

instant-Runoff Voting in rural SMDs would not do much but would ensure that voters there used same voting system as voters in cities.


Simple as that.


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The recent BC election meanwhile was conducted using FPTP, and the results show how chaotic the result and how limited the democratic accountability.


Here's some analysis of the 2024 BC election


Of 93 elected MLAs, 36 were elected by minority of votes in their district, as few as 36 percent of the vote in one case.

(Majority winners indicated by bold in district breakdown list below)


Ten Conservatives were elected in districts where NDP and Green party together took more votes.

(indicated by italics in list below)


Despite the single-member district being meant to be same size with the idea that each winner would represent the same number of voters, there was great range in voter turnout, in winners' vote percentages and  winners' vote tallies.


Winners' vote percentages ranged from 36 percent to 74 percent.


Winners' vote tally ranged from 4875 to more than three times as much -- 17,000.


Voter turnout in districts ranged from almost 34,000 to less than 8000.


With winners elected with different vote counts, that the two leading parties each got a seat share about in line, at least relative to each other, is little short of a miracle.



About half the valid votes  (52 percent) were used to elect the winners.

Almost half the valid votes did not elect anyone.


Specifically 1,059,461 votes were used to elect the 93 winners.

978,614 votes did not elect anyone.


2M valid votes in total -- 2,038,075


Both the NDP and the Conservative elected a member for each 20,000 votes cast for the party's  candidates.

The Green Party elected  a member for each 83,000 votes cast for the party's candidates.


The fact that many districts share names shows that existing communities on the gound were split by the boundaries of the 93 districts, which are arbitrary and un-natural.

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Here's the district breakdown.


WINNER'S District

                                  Party label         Vote tally    percent valid votes

Abbotsford-M         Conservative         13,254        56            23,812

Abbotsford S          Conservative         12,853        62            20,754

Abbotsford-W         Conservative        11,225         59            19,087

                                                             

Boundary  Conserv.   11,729    48   24,193  (Conserv. tally just more than NDP + Green)


Bulkley            Conservative                    4875      52        9301


Burnaby C        NDP                             9413          57    16,533

Burnaby E        NDP                            10,058        52    19,530

Burnaby NW    NDP                            10,259        60    17,164

Burnaby N        NDP                            10,353        53    19,546

Burnaby S        NDP                                7294       49      14,817

                           

Cariboo                Conservative        13,459        70    19,305


Chilliwack-C        Conservative        13,307        55        24,107

Chilliwack N        Conservative        11,492        55        20,875


Columbia   Conserv.    8616    48  17,911 (3-way race. NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)


Coquitlam B        NDP                         10,592            51        20,916

Coquitlam M         NDP                        11,568            52        22,438


Courtenay   Conserv.   13,146           39        33,676  NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)

Cowichan                NDP                        11,425            40        28,314


Delta N                    NDP                        10,692            53            20,358

Delta S                    Conservative        14,234            55            25,792


Esquimalt C     NDP                            14,456            51            28,274

Fraser                Conservative            10,162            55            18,584

Juan                    NDP                            8943              39            23,209     lead of just 23 votes


Kamloops C       Conservative      12,127   49     24,771  NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)

Kamloops N        Conservative            17,542            60            29,235


Kelowna C              NDP                      10,593            43        24,921

Kelowna Lake      Conservative      13,618           54          25,127

Kelowna Miss        Conservative        13,790        52        26,620


Kootenay C                NDP                      8466        39            21,485

Kootenay-M              NDP                      9954         52            19,201

Kootenay-Rockies    Conservative    8114        43       18,949  (Independent got 30 percent)


Ladysmith                NDP                     13,419        41            32,591


Langford                NDP                      10,940        51            21,265


Langley                Conservative       14,043        56        25,145

Langley Walnut    Conserv.   11,803    49.7      23,740  NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)

Langley Willow    Conserv. 10,671    49     21,996 NDP + Green more than Conservative tally)


Maple   Ridge E  Conservative  11,791   47    24,826 (lead of 300) 

NDP+Green more than Conserv. tally)

Maple RidgePitt        NDP                  14,076        55            25,739


Mid Isl.                        NDP                    13,588        49            28,004


Nanaimo Gab.            NDP                 14,084         52            26850

Nanaimo Lantzville    NDP                14,611         51            28,423


Nechako Lakes        Conservative    7770            68             11,480

New Westm. Coq            NDP            12,214            59            20,731

North Coast                    NDP                4765            65            7347

North Isl.   Conserv.  13,898  47    29,439  3-way race  NDP+Green more than Conserv. tally)


North Vanc. Lons.            NDP              16,060         65        24,851  2 cand.

North Vanc Seymour        NDP             15,671        53        29,775


Oak Bay                            NDP                        13,721        49        28,079


Peace River N                Conservative        10,997        74        14,781

Peace River S                Conservative          7070          70        10,103


Penticton Summ.   Conserv.  11,425     42   27,429  NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)


Port Coq                        NDP                            13,381            54        24,961

Port Moody                    NDP                            12,871            52        24,871


Powell River Sunsh.    NDP                                14,060            49            28,456


Prince George Mack            Conservative         10,534            61                17,236

Prince George N Cariboo    Conservative        11,262            57                19,729

Prince George Valem.            Conservative        8882            55                16,021


Richmond -Bridgep.          Conservative            9642        58            16,519

Richmond C                       Conservative            8208        52            15,714

Richmond Queens            Conservative            9864        51            19,265

Richmond Steves.                NDP                      10,013        44            22,662    lead of 500


Saanich N               Green             11,858        36         32,895    (3 parties within 2000 votes)

Saanich S                        NDP                                14587       49            29,486     3-way)


Salmon Arm-Shusw.    Conservative                16,313        52            31218

Skeena                            Conservative                  6,173         52            11,986


Surrey City C                NDP                                    6439                46               13,925

Surrey-Cloverd.  Conserv.  10,004   49      20,592 NDP + Green more than Conservative tally)

Surrey-Fleetw.            NDP                                        9574              48              19848

Surrey-Guildf.   Conserv.   8671   47  18,395 (100-vote lead) 

NDP + Green more than Conserv. tally)

Surrey-Newton            NDP                                    7632               51               15,026

Surrey-N                    Conservative                        7729              51                15,100

Surrey-Panorama    Conservative                            8527            49.9              17,100

Surrey-Serpentine    Conservative                9550            49.9            19,126 3-way no Green

Surrey S                    Conservative                        12,465            59                21,088

Surrey-White R.        Conservative                        14,257          52                27,164


Vanc-Fraserv                   NDP                          11,403            57               20,012

Vanc. Hastings                NDP                          13,701           64                21,385

Vanc. Kensington            NDP                          11,278           61                18,601

Vancouver Langara        NDP                           8111             48                16,859

Vanc. Little Mount.        NDP                        15,009            62                24,239

Vanc. Pt. Grey                NDP                        11,976            57                21,103

Vanc. Quiichena           Conservative        11,036            52                21,292

Vanc. Renfrew              NDP                         10,578            63                16,797

Vanc. S Granv.              NDP                         16,390            64                25,594

Vanc. Strath                    NDP                        13,278            69               19,294

Vanc. West End            NDP                        12,595             63                20,010

Vanc. Yaletown            NDP                              8552             49               17,311


Vernon Lumby                NDP                        11528            43                27,127 (lead of 400)


Vict. Beacon               NDP                      12714            47                26,913  Green in 2nd place

Vict Swan Lake         NDP                       13498            56        24,182  Green in 2nd place


West Kelowna            Conservative          13194        51                25,823


West Vanc-Cap.         Conservative     11673         47      24,897  (Ind. cand. took 21 percent)

West Vanc. Sea to Sky  Green             10221         38     26,794

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District winners


majority winners  54  (bold above)

minority winners  39

93 seats in total


record lowest minority winner  36 percent Saanich N

record highest majority winner  74 percent Peace River N



Winners' vote tallies

smallest vote tally 4875  Bulkley   (2nd: 6173   3rd: 6439 Surrey City)


largest winner's vote tally

more than 16,000:

North Vanc Lonsd    16,060

Salmon Arm Shus.  16,313

Vanc S. Granv.  16,390


Kamloops N 17,000



District


largest turnout in district

more than 26,000:

West Van Seat to Sky

Vict. Beacon

more than 27,000:

Vernon Lumbey 

Surrey-White Rock


more than 28,000:

Powell River Sunsh.


more than 29,000:

Kamloops N                   29,235

North Island                   29,439

North Vanc Seymout     29,775


more than 30,000:

Saanich S         30,000

Ladysmith         32,591

Saanich N         33,000

Courtenay         33,676


smallest turnout in district --  less than a third of the largest turnouts

North Coast 7347            (2nd Bulkley 9301)

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Hope this is useful,

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