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Tom Monto

2025 Canadian federal election - will FPTP allow Conservative minority win?

We might find satisfaction in France's blocking of the Rally National fascist victory (in July 2024) but as France's electoral system is different from Canada's we should not find much reassurance in that .


France's majoritarian Two-Round System allowed the non-far-right to come together when it came down to just two candidates competing for the districts' singel member..


Unfortunately Canada's electoral system - First past the post - has no such safety feature to prevent unfair results of vote splitting.


It is possible in the next Canadian election  we will see Conservatives win many seats with less than half the votes, as the majority is denied representation. 


Under FPTP, Liberals, NDP and Greens - divided as they are into their separate parties -- cannot easily come together to prevent minority Conservative district wins.


Canadian democracy needs Proportional Representation -- MMP or STV.


With FPTP in two single-member distrcits, it is possible that the Conservatives will take both seats,

This would be prevented under fair voting and two-seat districts.


Districts with three or more seats would be even more fair but two-seat districts will provide rough fairness.


If Trudeau is so worried about "extreme" parties , even two-seat districts -- where each voter has just one vote and the vote is in the form of a preferential ballot -- would allow a grouping of Liberal, NDP and Greens to take two seats in a district if the grouping composed two-thirds of the votes,

or to take at least one seat if it composed only a third of the votes

and the Conservatives would blikesie be able to take two seats or if it holds at least a third of the votes, it would also be guaranteed to take a seat.

Fairness and prevention of a party with only a third of the votes taking both seats.


Districts having just two seats and single transferable votes would mean a party would need about a third of the votes in the district to win a seat so would still screen out the smallest "extreme" parties that Trudeau is so worried about.


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