2026 Alberta Referendum 1.4M vote to Remain in Canada -- All other questions got little support. My October 2026 Millwoods Mosaic column on the vote

Referendum held in October 2026

many voted through mail-in ballot or advance voting, ahead of the main voting day October 19.

Results as of Tuesday (the day after polls closed)

1.4M in favour of remaining in Canada

eight of the other questions got more yeses than noes.

of the "nine", Question 8 "...allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs" got more noes than yeses.

Media reported majority in favour of remaining in Canada,

and majorities in favour of eight of the other nine questions 

BUT I hope the media (and the UCP government) notice that

none of those nine questions got the support of majority of voters who voted in the referendum.

1,894,378 voted in total (for question ten - the main question on choice of remaining in Canada or having another referendum on separation.)

None of the other nine questions got yes'es from a majority of those voters -- which would be 947,189  voters

question 1    802,000 yeses

2. 601,000 yes es

3  668,000 yes es

4   625,000 yes es

5  684,000 yes es

6   526,000 yes es

7  531,000 yes es

8  500,000 noes

9  492,000  yeses.

These were the results as of Tuesday but by Wednesday evening the picture was much different:

question 1   1,094,000 yeses were majority of those who voted for that question

2. 1,033,000 yes es were majority of those who voted for that question

3  1,053,000 yes es were majority of those who voted for that question

4   1,007,000 yes es were majority of those who voted for that question

5  1,084,000 yes es were majority of those who voted for that question

6   918,000 noes were majority of those who voted for that question

"...to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King's Bench and Appeal courts?"

7  833,000 yes es were majority of those who voted for that question

8  855,000 noes were majority of those who voted for that question

"...allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs" (the old-time kid's demand to get allowance without doing the chores)

9  793,000  noes were majority of those who voted for that question

"...giving a province's laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province's laws and federal laws conflict?"

So even on those 7 that got a "majority" of yes votes, there was only tepid level of support for moving forward on those initiatives IMO.

(actually that 30 or so percent support is just about what was polled - a relatively small minority in support of separation that polls measured in advance of the referendum voting.

Denial of social services to immigrants and Alberta-nation-building projects got just about the same level of minimal support -- less than a third of voters.

I hope the UCP government notices and reins itself in.

Such a statement seems to reveal a low regard for the majority who voted in favour of Alberta's "noxious nine" proposals

("Noxious" because where they were not completely objectionable, they seemed poorly articulated.

The repeal of Canada's un-elected Senate (and who wants to keep the un-elected Senate as it is) was not completely objectionable But it was unclear what would be the alternative. Instead of the un-elected Senate, would we have:

-an elected Senate (un-necessary as we already have an elected chamber (the House of Commons), or

-one where Alberta had as much representation as Ontario (undemocratic), or

-none at all. An abolished Senate is the best kind of Senate!

But actually looking past the relative vote tallies of those who voted, to the wider electorate was done in past referendums when social issues were at stake.

in the Canada-wide 1898 Prohibition referendum a majority voted in favour -- but the result was ignored on the grounds that only 44 percent of voters voted.

In the Prince Edward Island 2016 referendum on electoral reform, a majority voted in favour of switching to mixed-member proportional system -- but the result was ignored on the grounds that only 36 percent of voters voted.

in the 2026 Alberta referendum, about 2,043,000 people voted. This is turnout rate of 70 percent, based on total electorate of about 2,940,000. None of the "Noxious Nine" got support from half of the total electorate, which would be about about 1,470,000.

(based on the turnout rate of 2023 election of 60 percent turnout with 1,763,441 valid votes cast in that election.)

only about a third of the electorate is tepid endorsement for moving forward on those initiatives IMO.

I hope the UCP government notices and reins itself in.

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My October column in the Millwoods Mosaic was about the referendum:

Referendum Puts Alberta on Dangerous and Un-necessary Road

by Tom Monto

Next Monday Alberta voters will be voting on four proposed amendments to the Canadian constitution and five moves to limit or dis-empower immigrants. As well, voters will vote to proceed to holding a clear question on Alberta's separation, which if it passes would begin a  complicated process of dis-entangling ourselves from Canada. Either that or voters will vote to end the separation process right now. But these referendum questions arise from weirdness, are clouded by murkiness, and avoid what seems to be Alberta's major grievance.

First the weirdness. Only two years ago the Alberta government was advertizing across Canada for more new arrivals, as Premier Danielle Smith said she hoped to double Alberta’s population in the next couple decades. And now she is calling for Albertans to sign off on restrictions on new arrivals and on denying some of them access to public services that they historically have received. 

Then the murkiness. 

A couple of the questions use the term "Albertans" when there is no clear definition of what it means to be Albertan. 

Also the question of separation or remaining in Canada is open to interpretation. The Alberta referendum on October 19 may be thought to be just a sampling of whether or not people want a later real referendum on separation. Or it can be taken as a sign that people merely want a better deal from the federal government. Or it may be considered a chance to say "stay in Canada" with no need for leverage on Ottawa and no need for separation. Some will see it one way; some will see it differently. 

Either way, no matter if the majority of Albertans vote to stay in Canada, the government may go ahead with a separation referendum later anyway. The Premier is sitting on the fence saying she is in favour of Alberta staying in Canada but with better treatment. But meanwhile she is seemingly doing all she can to encourage a vote for separation.

Separatists point to the federal government’s equalization program as grounds for divorce from Canada. But the program is merely the federal government spending its money as it wants, to aid poorer provinces. And each of the provincial governments agreed to it in the past. 

Dropping the equalization program will not necessarily put one more dollar in Albertans' hands. Barring some change to the income tax schedule, we will pay the same amount to Ottawa anyway.

But if the equalization program is so bad, why do we not get to vote on it on October 19? It looks to me like the reason is that we already did - back in 2021. Almost exactly five years ago to the day, on October 18, 2021, Albertans voted in a two-question referendum. A majority voted in favour of the federal government cancelling the equalization program, and in the other question a majority voted to retain seasonal DLT. 

These votes had no effect. Ottawa's equalization program stayed in place, and Alberta will be adopting permanent DLT this fall when we do not fall back with a clock change. (Whether we want to or not, we are going to be seeing how we like the sun coming up at 9:30 am on Christmas morning!)

Perhaps because the 2021 vote result on equalization was simply ignored, the government did not bother to have us waste our time on  it a second time.

Too bad the government did not use the same common sense to save us from these nine questions this time round. It seems no matter how we vote the result may be ignored or overturned anyway.

But this time we have the serious question of proceeding on the convoluted path of independence or simply shutting it down now. However this time again how most of us vote may be ignored or  purposefully mis-represented and used  against us.

Quebec historically has held two referendums on separation. They went off relatively smoothly and resulted in majority-no votes. (Montreal though has never rebounded from the impact on its economy that those votes caused.)

But this time such sampling of public sentiment is different. 

This time Alberta's act of recording the vote may actually open the door to U.S. President Trump copying Russian President Putin and doing to Canada what Russia did to Ukraine. Russian expansionists and militarists used slanted reportage of public sentiment as grounds to hive off part of Ukraine in order to solve a strategic problem. The U.S. could view Alberta’s oil and other strategic resources in the same way that Russia saw its need for security from NATO expansion.

Irrespective of how Canada and Alberta deal with the cries for Alberta independence, we should not forget that our neighbour to the south is capable of trying to use what we think of as fair dialogue as grounds for intervention. Trump certainly has his own problems, and it would not be the first time that a beleaguered U.S. politician used a foreign war to take attention away from internal problems.

With strong U.S. dependence on Alberta oil and Alberta’s proximity to the U.S., public disorder arising from the evolving political situation and political violence erupting between separatists and modern-day Loyalists may be used as justification for U.S. military intervention.

A review of the history of Katanga’s secession from Belgian Congo in 1960 may be illuminating about how badly what might seem like a simple redrawing of political borders can go. Belgian military support for Katanga’s secession, civil war, isolated towns cut off from protection, and widespread lawlessness led to a coup d’etat in the capital and overthrow of the elected president Patrice Lumumba. Lumumba then fled, was tracked down by Canadian army officer Jean Berthiaume on duty with the United Nations, and was executed. 

A truly murderous situation. And what one might expect when billions of investment and personal and political pride is at stake.

And already we see U.S. officials and operatives actively involved in our private referendum. 

And we can expect that the government of an independent Alberta would be compliant to U.S. demands, especially if Alberta and Canada part on bad terms (which is likely if they part at all). A sizable segment of Albertans are loyal to Canada. We should expect that people will be people. Protests and acts of sabotage (or worse) are likely if Alberta pushes ahead with separation. Such could be taken as grounds for U.S. military action to preserve important supply chains, eventually leading to complete takeover.

U.S. troops have invaded pretty much every country in the Americas at least once to protect U.S. investments. Why would Alberta be different?

When Germany invaded Norway in 1940, Vidkun Quisling stepped forward to serve as head of a puppet government. His name is now a general term for all such characters.

Fifth columnists assisted German armed forces attacking France when that country’s turn came and so forth. Divide-and-conquer was a well-practiced strategy of the old Roman Empire. And Canada may be just as vulnerable as any of the nations that were conquered in the past.

A strong vote on October 19 in favour of remaining in Alberta would be a signal to the U.S. to keep its hands off.  I say "Send separatists a message. Choose Canada" on October 19.

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I wanted to put in these things but found I did not have space:

recent promise by Carney for support of building new pipeline will only happen if we do not separate, I expect.

Parti Quebec says it will not hold a referendum on separation until Trump is gone from the White House. while in Alberta the push to separate is by MAGA types who hope to join a Trump led USA. If Alberta not separate before next U.S. election and that election produces a Democrat president, it is not likely Alberta separatists will want to be independent or join the U.S.

Advance voting for referendum runs October 13-17. The Millwoods Cultural Society of the Retired & Semi-retired, 1560 48 St NW, is polling place for Millwoods.

[at least that is what I read -- Elections Alberta communication are not clear.

they did tell me:

To know where to vote please visit the link https://map.elections.ab.ca/Index.aspx or you can call our service center on 1.877.422.VOTE (8683)

Hours:

8:15am-8:00pm Monday-Friday,

8:15am-6:00pm Saturday/Sunday, and

On voting days from 8:15am to 8:00pm.]

note nowhere (that I saw) does information say you vote in your provincial electoral district.

I was hearing the non-specific "vote in your area," even as i was at a polling station only blocks from my house and then learned that that polling place was outside my area because it was outside my provincial district and therefore not for me.

Edmonton, or even Central Alberta, can be considered "my area".

also poll number 43 (or whatever) could be considered "my area"

but advance voting only had two polling places for Edmonton-Strathcona

so it seems "area" did not mean polling place,

but actually on voting day for a real election (and perhaps for this referendum), you would need to go to the proper polling station, not just anywhere in the provincial electoral district.

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