2026 U.S. midterms - Dem. "tsunami" result of shift of just few votes -- Republicans so hated by that important few that Democrats have no need to feel pressed -- Two-party Doom Loop in full effect!
Updated: 2h
Study of the seven Senate seats that "flipped" from Republicans to Democrats in 2026
Just looking at the Senate, one of the two Houses that the Democrats secured dominance in,
Democrats are credited with a landslide.
But they took just 7 new seats, overcoming a four-seat deficit and now holding just a three-seat majority.
And it is interesting to note that comparisons online (the ones I have seen anyway, principally wikipedia articles) are made between 2026 and 2020. But in all cases in the country each state has held an election since 2020 - in either 2022 or 2024.
as well voter turn-out is not recorded with the perception created that the votes cast are all that matters (that plurality is all that matters ) and voter participation (or satisfaction of eligible voters) is not important.
It also implies that any shift is only between the parties, and not the emergence or turnout of new voters. but in some cases in this study of the seven Senate seats that "flipped" from Republicans to Democrats in 2026 we see new voters obviously making an appearance - The Republican vote dropped by more than the Democrat's rise.
(Turnout is recorded for the U.S. House of Representatives elections it was only 49 percent. so we are talking a large store of voters (likely many Republicans) who can really shift things up next time if they decide to vote.
(the turnout in 2024 is not known but 150M votes cast, 25M more than the 2026's 125M, so it seems there are 250M eligible voters and the 2024 turnout was 60 percent)
when we compare the votes to the last Senate election held in each state
we see
only moderate increase in Democrat votes
the Republican vote collapsing.
The shift in who holds the more votes gives rise to claims that many more voted Democrats instead of recognition that the outcomes was due to relative plurality (or slight majority) and no tidal wave of popular opinion in favor of Democrats.
in all the seven states it seems clear to me the Democrats never received the support of more than half the eligible voters.
difference in party totals in 2026 compared to last election, either 2022 or 2024
DEM REP 2026 Total two-party totals Winners' lead
Iowa +153,000 -51,000 1.317M 36,000
Kansas +188,000 -98,000 1.065M 54,000
Maine +241,00 +91,000 705,000 65,000
Ohio -.35M -.76M 4.4M 224,000
North Carolina +.684M -.263M 4.111M .8M
South Carolina +.414M -.115M 1.993M 90,000
Texas +.414M -1.741M 9.695M 1.2M
NET 1.744M -2.937M 23.286M 2.459M
(note the repeat of the .414M is not a typo -- the two increases are the same)
We see that Republican vote dropped by almost 3M, about 13 percent of two party total.
Democrat vote rose by 1.7M, about 7 percent of the two party total.
perhaps 1.3M votes who had voted in previous election stayed home
(or more if you consider that likely many 2026 voters had not voted in previous election)
in Texas the drop in Republican votes and the smaller increase in Democrat votes accounts fully for the winners' lead - this shows the vote was almost even in the previous election.
In Ohio, oddly enough, both parties took fewer votes than in 2024, with the Democrats not dropping as much as the Republicans. The governor was elected in 2026 so it was not an unimportant election cycle so <i cannot account for the lower turnout.
Maine the picture is different than in the other states as in last election an Independent Senator was elected. The Democrats suffered in that election, thus giving rise to the 240,000 rise in Democrat votes in the 2024-2026 comparison. if we compare 2026 Ohio Senate election to a more usual type of election when the two main parties took the two largest vote tallies - the 2020 Ohio Senate election - we see in 2026 the Democrats taking 17,000 fewer votes than in 2020. this despite the fact the state population has grown since 2020.
FPTP change in governments often arise more from a collapse in one party's votes than any large increase in the winning party's vote tally.
This seems to be the case.
But such a case leads to insecurity and paranoia, we are not likely to see a reduction in the partisan polarization. likely the new members know they have insecure hold on the seat.
1.2M Republican votes did not vote, if not more than that figure actually, if they get out and vote, the seven seats can easily slide the other way once again.
The swing voters are critical and they are the least likely to stay with the Democrats through thick and thin.
so we can expect a timid Democrat government, especially as:
their own loyal supporters, such as the 1.8M in North Carolina who voted Democrat in the last two consecutive elections, are not likely to go to Republicans no matter how bad Democrats act,
and the swing voters will easily go to Republicans,
-the stay-at-home Republicans if motivated by Democrat radical change, will get out and vote against the Democrats.
meanwhile if U.S. elected both Senators in each state at same time, through STV or list PR, each party would elect a seat in each state for each third (plus 1 vote) of the state's votes.
There would be less concern about the swing voters.
a slight change is not likely -- or less likely -- to make a difference compared to the requirement for plurality under FPTP.
a voting block of just more than a third of the state's votes cast will give a seat, no matter whether another party even takes as much as 64 percent of the votes.
FPTP delivers one-party sweeps of a state's seats (except for seats won by sensational turnover elections like 2026 as compared to continuing Senators elected in previous status quo),
while STV or list PR would give mixed rep. in each state each time unless no two parties take a third of votes (plus 1) each, but it is likely with the U.S. two-party standoff that states wold elect one Dem and one Rep. in very many cases, because that actually reflects how the votes are cast about equally.
even in this "Dem-landslide" 2026 election, 63M voted Dem and 49M voted Republican, a 56 percent/44 percent split.
a proportional share of seats in the 435-seat HofR would be
Democrat 244 seats Republican 191
actual seats Democrat 254 seats Republican 162.
so not far off,
but with offsetting one-party sweeps in:
DEM - Mass., Connecticut, Rhode Island New Mex
REP - Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas
in each of which the other party should have some rep.
Maryland Colorado, Oregon Wash. State, and New Jersey each gave just one seat to Rep who took a third of votes or more
Utah, Nebraska each gave just one seat to Dem who it seems took a third of votes or more
on PR front it seems Democrats have dominance in enough states that progress may be made toward getting needed states to sign off on the intra-state initititive to replace the electoral college with the popular vote.
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Further remarks and math details
Two things strike me about the recent midterms:
-Democrats actually have to do little. if they disappoint voters, where will they go?
back to Republican camp? not likely.
so the election gives the Democrats a free ride - another chapter in the two-party doom loop.
-also the Democrat win is actually result of shift of just a few votes.
this is piece I sent to some PR friends reproduced here:
News says Democrats won majorities in both Houses.
actually more true to say "it won many more seats than Republicans enough to overcome its previous seat deficits and combined with the previous seats it had won in 2024, it captured majorities in both Houses."
in other words, Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats the party needed to claim the majority, winning races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas.
of the 35 seats up for grabs in 2026, the 7 seats flipped is only one fifth.
looking at seat totals,
if the 35 seats were in five parts (7 seats in each part),
two parts (14 seats) stayed Dem.,
two parts (14 seats) stayed Rep.
one part (7 seats) shifted from Rep to Dem.
the 2026 midterms is good case of FPTP flip flop.
the look at seats held and changed is so prevalent that nowhere do I see the party totals for votes cast.
But it seems likely, to me anyway, that perhaps 5 percent of voters changed their voting
(vote distribution going from 55% Rep /45% Dem to 55% Dem/45% Rep)
with many more votes staying where they were in last election than votes that moved
and with many more seats changing than proportional to the (relatively) slight shift in votes.
although perhaps in districts where seats shifted, the vote change might have been larger than that expected 5 percent.
looking at Senate elections where seats flipped -- Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas.
Iowa 2020 DEM 755,000 REP 865,000
2022 DEM 533,000 REP 682,000
2026 DEM 686,000 REP 631,000
CHANGE 2020-2026 -69,000 +234,000
CHANGE 2022-2026 +153,000 -51,000
Kansas 2020 DEM 572,000 REP 728,000
2022 DEM 372,000 REP 603,000
2026 DEM 560,000 REP 505,000
CHANGE 2020-2026 -12,00 -223,000
CHANGE 2022-2026 +188,000 -98,000
Maine 2020 DEM 347,000 REP 418,00
2024 DEM 89,000 REP 284,000 IND 427,000 TOTAL .8M
2026 DEM 330,000 REP 375,000 IND 41,000 IND 14,000 tot. .76M
CHANGE 2020-2026 -17,000 -43,000
CHANGE 2024-2026 +241,00 +91,000
Ohio 2022 DEM 1.9M REP 2.2M
2024 DEM 2.651M REP 2.857M
2026 DEM 2.3M REP 2.1M
CHANGE 2022-2026 +.4M -.1M
CHANGE 2024-2026 -.35M -.76M
North Carolina 2020 DEM 2.570M REP 2.670M
2022 DEM 1.784M REP 1.906M
2026 DEM 2.468M REP 1.643M
CHANGE 2020-2026 -.102M -1.027M
CHANGE 2022-2026 +.684M -.263M
South Carolina 2020 DEM 1.110M REP 1.4M
2022 DEM 628,000 REP 1.066M
2026 DEM 1.042M REP .951M
CHANGE 2020-2026 -.058M -.449M
CHANGE 2022-2026 +.414M -.115M
Texas 2022 DEM 4.889M REP 5.963M
2024 DEM 5.031M REP 5.991M
2026 DEM 5.445M REP 4.25M
CHANGE 2022-2026 +.556M -1.713M
CHANGE 2024-2026 +.414M -1.741M
difference in party totals in 2026 compared to last election either 2022 or 2024
DEM REP 2026 Total two-party totals
Iowa +153,000 -51,000 1.317M
Kansas +188,000 -98,000 1.065M
Maine +241,00 +91,000 705,000
Ohio -.35M -.76M 4.4M
North Carolina +.684M -.263M 4.111M
South Carolina +.414M -.115M 1.993M
Texas +.414M -1.741M 9.695M
NET 1.744M -2.937M 23.286M
Ohio -- one example of FPTP attention to just swing voters
OHIO Democrat victory due to shift of less than ten percent of voters
DEM REP
2022 Dem 1.9M 47% Rep 2.2M 53%
2026 Dem 2.3M 50% Rep 2.1M 45% (Libertarian 5%)
we see that from 2022 to 2026 Rep dropped by only about 100,000,
Dems moved up by 400,000
against this change in 500,000 votes,
roughly 1.9 Dems and 2.1 M Rep stayed the same,
a total of 4M staying the same.
shift of less than ten percent of total Ohio votes changed who held the seat, in the two-party face-off.
(take these as net figures - surely some moved between the camps in either direction, and new voters arrived, some not voted in both elections, some died, new voters had become old enough to vote, etc.)
and then too you have vote splitting,
with Libertarian candidate taking about 3 percent of votes, likely most of them spilt from the Rep camp.
and Socialist Greg Levy getting 2 percent of the vote, likely most of them spilt from the Dem camp.
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FPTP as seen here produces exciting turnovers and heroes of the day, so is a news sensation
but actually boils down to very little resemblance to reality.
the FPTP tsunami now will lead to a policy lurch.
Much as we in Canada and many in the U.S. like a backing down on the trade war as part of this policy lurch , we should recognize that the landslide victory was actually due to just a small shift in seat change only seven seats in 100-seat Senate) and to a small shift in voting behaviour (perhaps just 10M in a country where 150M vote).
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