Calgary-Varsity is described as a swing riding, one where elections are close races and the seat is easily won or lost. Certainly the seat has been passed from party to party several times since its creation in 1993. And to paraphrase the old Shakespearean royalty adage, uneasy lies the head that fills the seat.
Candidates win the seat with a minority of the vote or at most a slight majority. The only exception being the 2001 election where the winner got 59 percent of the vote.
If nothing else, the election of a candidate with the support of only a minority of the vote means that a majority of voters in those cases were not represented.
And the MLA's grip on the seat is insecure. This along with the winner-take-all FPTP system leads to hard-fought mean-spirited election contests. Unlike FPTP contests, a multi-member contest under Proportional representation (Single Transferable Voting) is not a zero-sum game. Two candidates can both win, so there is no direct candidate-to-candidate competition.
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Record of elections in Calgary-Varsity
1993 Progressive-Conservative Murray Smith won with 8520 votes and 48 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 6860 votes.
1997 Progressive-Conservative Murray Smith won with 7232 votes and 51 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 5414 votes.
2001 Progressive-Conservative Murray Smith won with 8173 votes and 59 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 3938 votes.
2004 Liberal Harry Chase won with 6347 votes and 45 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 5591 votes.
2008 Liberal Harry Chase won with 6907 votes and 47 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 5353 votes.
2012 Progressive-Conservative Donna Kennedy-Glans won with 8099 votes and 46 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 4624 votes.
2015 NDP Stephanie McLean won with 8297 votes and 44 percent of the vote. The nearest contender had 5700 votes.
2019 United Conservative Party Jason Copping won with 10,853 votes and 46 percent of the vote. The nearest contender Anne McGrath, former president of the Canadian NDP, had 10,215 votes. Together the front runners had 89 percent of the vote. An unusually tight two-party contest.
Ironically McGrath received more votes than any candidate in a previous election, including the the successful ones who were elected. But she got 600 votes fewer than her P-C opponent so did not gain the seat.
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Calgary-Varsity is an artificial creation made up of areas that were formerly part of three other districts. If STV had been in use, it would have been possible to simply add a seat to a district that covered all the city or a part of the city. But instead to give Calgary more seats, the districts had to be redrawn.
It contains Charleswood, just one part of the Triwood community. So in this way at least is not based on natural boundaries on the ground.
Next door to Calgary-Varsity
Calgary North West in 2019 the vote tallies were
UCP 13,565
NDP 7611
If Calgary-Vasity and Calgary North West had been put together, the vote totals in 2019 would have been UCP 23,000; NDP 17,800.
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In another part of Calgary, the drawing of the districts ensured that the NDP won one district and not two. Drawing the districts another way or combining two districts could have resulted in two NDP, not one, being elected.
Calgary-McCall NDP 6567 UCP 6753
Calgary Falconbridge NDP 6662 UCP 4851
Bi-district totals 13,229 11,604.
Of course, other combinations might yield more seats for the UCP denying the NDP even the scant three seats it now holds in Calgary. And that is equally true.
And this also should drive fans of both parties to drive for a fairer system that would lift Calgary out of the almost accidental results we now experience.
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