for the last 150 years, Canada has been governed by a system of minority rule.
Since 1921 in only three elections has the elected government received a majority of the vote. And there were only three elections before 1921 when a party in power won a majority of the vote. (Stats for the early elections vary.) The only real difference is that before 1921 there was only one case where no party took a majority of the seats, while after 1921 minority governments have been much more common, reflecting the leading party's mere minority percentage of the vote.
A majority government elected with only the support of a minority of the votes is minority rule. A minority government elected with a minority of the vote is both minority rule and unstable - easy and early to fall. (Now if supply-and-support agreements such as currently exists between the Liberal government and the NDP, become more common or if Canada stretches to use coalition governments, which are common in Europe, then minority governments will become more stable and we will begin to see majority governments supported by MPs who have been elected by majority of voters more often, instead of the once every 20 years that we now see them.
Labour, farmer and other third parties have run in federal elections since 1867, the year Canada began with the union of separate British colonies.
In fact a third party ran in 1867 itself. In addition to the Liberal and Conservative party, there was the Anti-Confederation Party. This provincial/regional-based party took 18 seats.
But 1921 is often taken as the start of third-party politics where Canada broke out of the two-party straitjacket that had previously stifled hopes of proper representation for labour, farmers and socialists.
Thus, since Confederation, there have been only six governments elected with a majority of the vote.
These are in bold in the list below.
Note that every other majority government other than those six have been governments who were elected by only a minority of votes cast. Government is most often a government by a party that has taken fewer than 40 percent of votes cast. And if you look just at that party's elected members who make up the government, a total vote share of less than 21 percent has happened (the Liberal government in 2019). In 2019 successful Liberal MPs received only about 4M votes of the 18.4M votes that were cast.
Combined with low voter turnout, majority governments have been elected with support from as few as 15 percent or so of voters in the land. In 2019 successful Liberal MPs received only about 4M votes and there were 27M eligible voters. So 15 percent of the eligible voters elected that government. It was a minority government and only survived for two years.
(Some of these stats are from evidence formulated for a Court Challenge against the election system,which is being pursued in 2023.
======================================================
Canada's federal elections
2021 Trudeau minority
32 percent of the vote went to the Lib party (only 19 pc. of the eligible voters)
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 1 percent more of vote than Liberals)
(lowest percentage of vote that produced government ever)
2019 Trudeau minority 33 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 1 percent more of vote than Liberals)
(lowest percentage of vote that produced government up to this time)
2015 Trudeau majority 39 percent of the vote
(No first-time government has won majority government with a smaller share of
the vote than this election)
2011 Harper majority 40 percent of the vote
2008 Harper minority 38 percent (only 22 percent of the eligible voters)
2006 Harper minority 36 percent
2004 Martin minority 37 percent of vote
2000 Chretien majority 41 percent of vote
1997 Chretien majority 38 percent of vote
(lowest percentage of vote that produced majority government)
(only 26 percent of the eligible voters)
(second shortest majority government only about 3 years)
1993 Chretien majority 41 percent of vote
1988 Mulroney majority 43 percent
1984 Mulroney majority 50.03 percent
1980 Trudeau minority 44 percent of vote
1979 Clark minority 36 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Pierre Trudeau's Liberals received 40 percent of the vote)
(only 27 percent of the eligible voters)
1974 Trudeau majority 43 percent of the vote
1972 Trudeau minority 38 percent of the vote
1968 Trudeau majority 46 percent of the vote
1965 Pearson minority 40 percent of vote
1963 Pearson minority 42 percent of vote
1962 Diefenbacker minority 37 percent of vote
1958 Diefenbacker majority 54 percent of vote
(second largest percentage of the vote a government received)
1957 Diefenbacker minority 39 percent of vote
(wrong-winner election: Liberals got 41 percent of the vote)
1953 St. Laurent majority 48 percent of the vote
1949 St. Laurent majority 49 percent of the vote
1945 King minority 40 percent of the vote
1940 King majority 51 percent
1935 King majority 45 percent of the vote
1930 Bennett majority 48 percent of the vote
1926 King minority 43 percent of the vote
1925 Meighen minority 46 percent of the vote
1921 King majority/minority 41 percent of the vote
(only 28 percent of the eligible voters)
(the last part of the 1921-1925 term was minority government)
1917 Borden majority 57 percent of the vote
(Borden's much-disparaged wartime election was riddled with unfairness)
(largest percentage of the vote in any federal election)
1911 Borden majority 49 percent of the vote
1908 Laurier majority 49 percent (shortest term for majority government 2.5 years *)
1904 Laurier majority 50.9
1900 Laurier majority 50.3 (this was only 40 percent of the eligible voters)
1896 Laurier majority 41 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 3 percent more of vote than Libs)
1891 Macdonald majority 49 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1887 Macdonald majority 47 percent (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1882 Macdonald majority 40 percent (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1878 Macdonald majority 42 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1874 Mackenzie Liberal majority 40 percent of the vote
1872 Macdonald minority 39 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
(first minority federal government in Canada,
(Independents took 6 seats (see my blog "1872 election produced..."))
1867 Macdonald majority 35 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
==============
* shortest term for majority government --
11th Parliament 2.5 years
elected in 1908 Oct election
but the new government came in in 1909 Jan. 20 and it lasted until July 1911.
==================================================================
A fundamental feature of our FPTP system is that a party can form a “false majority” government - that is, capturing a majority of the seats without receiving a majority of the popular vote.
Federal majority governments based on majority of the popular vote are rare, only six in the history of Canada.
The last one was in 1984 under Brian Mulroney, whose party gained just 50.03 percent of the vote.
By tying the number of seats of each party more closely to its share of the popular vote, PR would make it more difficult to elect majority governments formed by a single party with less than half the vote.
==========================
Minority rule
in all but six elections a party with only a minority of the votes has taken government.
In many cases the leading party with less than half the votes has only taken a minority of the seats. But the minority party, at least for as long as it is in power, has the support of a majority of the MPs and thus 100 percent of the power.
An extreme case of over-representation of the leading party was 1935.
In 1935 Liberals won majority government (173 seats) with only 45 percent of the vote. leaving the majority of voters, spread over four parties, with only 72 seats.
False majorities = all but six of Canada's governments
in the last 150-plus years only six governments have been elected with a majority of the vote.
Only one of last 19 governments, which is going back to 1962, had the support of a majority of voters.
Only one of last eight majority governments, which is going back to 1968, had a majority of the votes. (Mulroney 1984 50.03 percent)
Five of last seven governments, 11 of the last 22 governments, have been minority governments, each supported by minority of the voters. Only two were majority governments, none of which were supported by majority of the voters.
Only two governments since 1944 had a majority of the vote - 1984 and 1958.
Only three since 1921 -- 1984, 1948 and 1940.
Only three before 1921. This includes Borden's much-discredited election in 1917.
Usually 1921 is taken as start of third parties, But it seems that provincially-based third parties, or Independent candidates of various stripes did take enough votes to deprive leading party (the government party) from having majority of votes even in Canada's second election. This happened even more often after 1921.
Jean Chrétien's Liberals in 1997 won majority with less than 40 percent of the vote. Chrétien won with just 38 per cent of the vote in that election against a divided right.
-----------------------
FOUR WRONG-WINNER ELECTIONS
The only possible exception to this theory of third-party as cause of minority rule could have been Canada's wrong-winner elections. If a party received a majority of the vote but another party received more seats, then it would not have been caused by a "third party." But that never happened.
One wrong-winner election produced a majority government
One party takes the most votes but a different party took more seats.
One party takes a majority of the seats.
1896 is the only time a wrong-winner election produced a majority government in Canada's history.
The Liberals took a majority of the seats (although taking only 41 percent of the votes).
The Liberal party took more seats than the Conservative party, but the Conservative party took more votes, taking 48 percent of the vote.
No party took a majority of the votes.
In part this odd victory was caused by small voting blocks taking ten percent of the vote, leaving only 89 percent of the votes to be split between the two main parties. The two main parties took 89 percent of the vote but 95 percent of the seats.
in 1896 the oddly-named farmers group Patrons of Industry took four percent of the vote. Independent candidates of a variety of stripes took about three percent of the vote. The Nationalist parties (the label meaning different things in different provinces) and the McCarthyite party also took more than one percent of the vote each. The Protestant Protective Association took almost one percent as well. These smaller groups took ten percent of the votes but won only half that portion of the seats, only ten of the 213 seats in the House of Commons.
Wrong-winner elections produced three minority governments
One party took the most votes but a different party took more seats.
No party took a majority of the seats. (No party took a majority of the votes.)
2019 Justin Trudeau 33 percent of the vote (Conservatives got 34 percent)
1979 Clark's Conservative minority government (36 percent of the vote) (P.E.T.'s Liberal got 40 percent of the vote)
1979 Liberals took more votes (but a minority of the votes), but Joe Clark's Conservatives took less votes and more seats to take minority government. This government only lasted nine months.
1957 Liberal got more votes (41 percent of the votes) but Diefenbaker's Conservatives (with 39 percent of the votes) took more seats. Conservatives formed minority government, propped up by Social Credit MPs.
The next year Diefenbaker rolled the dice. He called an early election, hoping for a larger seat count. This is a problem with FPTP. Governments are always hoping to better their position through small, perhaps short-term, changes in popularity. These small shifts are inflated through FPTP, so they lead governments to call elections more readily than would happen under more reliable PR. (Suffering the common calamity of a small party that had propped up a larger one, SC was trounced in the 1958 election, losing all its seats. It actually took half the votes it had taken in 1957 but suffered seat wipe-out anyway, due to the non-proportional first past the post voting system in use.
-----------------------------------------
Early minority government -- 1891
in 1891 Macdonald formed a minority government with only 49 percent of the vote.
Independent candidates of a variety of stripes took about three percent of vote and eight seats.
As well, five Conservatives were elected by acclamation so the Conservative party's votes gave it 112 seats (a majority) with only 49 percent of the vote. Another five seats coming to it without benefit of a vote.
Effect of acclamations is often overlooked. in the case of Alberta 1917 election, the Liberal government does not seem so over-represented compared to its vote tally. But five of its MLAs were elected automatically due to wartime service, without any voting. If you take these five away and then compare the seat count to the vote tally, the usual large over-representation accorded the largest party under FPTP becomes apparent. Under FPTP, usually the leading party takes about 20 percentage points more seats than its vote share.
Early minority government -- 1872
1872 was the first minority federal government in Canada, due to Independents taking 6 seats.
1872 Macdonald 39 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons).
The Liberals only 34 percent of the vote. The main parties took only 73 percent of the vote between them.
This left enough votes loose for six independent of various stripes to be elected.
(see my blog "1872 election produced...").
1993 stands out as democratic disaster.
1993 saw a false-majority election of the party in power and a twice-over wrong-winner election of the Official Opposition. Chretien's Liberals won majority government with only a minority of the votes (41 percent). It was the leading party so at least it was not a wrong-winner election. The Bloc Quebecois took 14 percent of the vote and more seats than any other party except the Liberals so became the Official Opposition. This was odd because they were not a national party and were separatist in sentiment. It was also against voters' sentiment. Two other opposition parties had taken more votes (but fewer seats) than the BQ, and thus were more deserving to be named Official Opposition. The P-Cs had taken more votes (16 percent) than the BQ. But won only a few seats. Even the NDP with 7 percent of the vote took more seats than the P-Cs whose support was split by the Reform Party's recent emergence. Preston Manning's Reform Party also took more votes than the BQ (19 percent) but like the P-Cs fewer seats than the BQ so were ignored when it came time to name the Official Opposition.
We need to change from FPTP.
Thanks for reading.
=======================================================================