In Canada's last federal election (in 2021) two main parties got a combined 67 percent of the votes cast, leaving 33 percent, a third of votes cast, to the "third parties."
In 2019 the two leading parties got an almost identical 67 percent.
in 2015 it was 71 percent, leaving 29 percent to third parties.
This phenomena where "third parties" were left with about a third of the vote was seen back in 1921. Third parties appeared in substantial mass that year. In that election "third parties" got 30 percent of the vote. Most of that went to the Progressive Party and the affiliated United Farmers of Alberta with a combined 22 percent of the vote. The Progressive/UFA won 60 seats - they were due 51.
The next election they lost strength - winning 24 seats when their combined vote share of 9 percent should have given them 22. The Farmer vote was concentrated in Alberta and Sask so Prog/UFA got benefit of concentration.
Once Social Credit supplanted the UFA as the main focus of farmer votes in Alberta, third parties were again less often voted for and the pattern was established that they would be super under-represented.
1935 election the two main parties took 75 percent of the vote and 218 of the 245 seats in in the HofC, leaving just 27 seats to third parties who were due 61 seats.
And that has been the pattern almost always ever since.
The Progressives and UFA were concentrated (on the Prairies and in farming districts) so got a larger share of the seats than its vote share.
Generally third parties are under-represented or not represented at all.
That is true for the NDP. Almost always it has been under-represented in the HofC.
In 2008 it won 18 percent of the vote but only 37 seats - it was due 55.
In 2015 it won 20 percent of the vote but only 44 seats - it was due 68.
In 2021 it won 18 percent of the vote but only 24 seats - it was due 61.
Jack Layton is credited with leading the NDP to unparallelled success in 2011 but that was partly just a fluke produced by our shaky eleciton system.
"In the 2011 election, Layton led the NDP to the most successful result in the party's history, winning 103 seats—enough for the party to form the Official Opposition for the first time." (Wiki Jack Layton)
but in 2011 the NDP won 31 percent of the vote and 103 seats. It was due 94 seats that year.
The 2011 over-representation of the NDP is not even close to being adequate compensation for all those other elections when the NDP has been under-represented.
========================
It seems only commonsense that voters will assume that they can vote for whom they truly want elected and it seems then commonsense to have a voting system that will take votes as cast and allocate seats in due proportion to how votes are cast.
PR is what we want, and what voters deserve.
======================================================================
Comments