There is not alot in common between Canada and the U.S. politic-wise, but there is one connection thing that has happened again and again.
This is it - Canada has only elected a Conservative government when there is a Republican in the White House.
This is a hard and fast rule if applied to majority Conservative governments elected by majority of votes. And usally applies to any time when a Conservative government, even one elected by less than majority of votes, is elected. (Note that Canada seldom gets a majority government elected by a majority of voters.)
But the extension does not hold true - that when there is a Republican in the White House, Canada always votes Conservative.
As a logician might put it, a Republican president is a necessary but not sufficient condition for Conservative victory in Canada.
In fact, it is said that Canada votes Conservative once each generation, and that is enough for 20 years.
Let's look at the record of Conservative governments elected in Canada:
1867 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
1872 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
(1873 Alexander Mackenzie's Liberal government elected when Republican Grant in WH)
1878 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
1882 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
1886 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
1891 John A. Macdonald's Liberal-Conservative government elected
We'll leave Macdonald's coalition governments aside as being murky cases.
From here on, the case is clear, with only three exceptions -- two of which were minority Conservative governments. The other was a case of a Conservative majority government elected by a minority of votes.
1911 Borden's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Taft)
(1917 Borden's Unionist government
(Conservative-led Liberal-Conservative coalition) elected Democrat in WH (Wilson))
(1926 Meighen's minority Conservative government filled in at end of 1921-1926 term after minority Liberal government fell Republican in WH (Coolidge))
1930 Bennett's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Hoover)
1957- Diefenbaker's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Eisenhower)
1958 Diefenbaker's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Eisenhower)
1962 Diefenbaker's minority Conservative government elected Democrat in WH (JFK)
(an exception to the rule)
1979 Clarke's minority Conservative government elected Democrat in WH (Carter)
(an exception to the rule)
1984 Mulroney's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Reagan)
1988 Mulroney's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Reagan)
2006 Harper's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Bush)
2008 Harper's Conservative government elected Republican in WH (Bush)
2011 Harper's Conservative government elected Democrat in WH (Obama)
(an exception to the rule)
Thus, the only exceptions to the Conservative-Republican connection were in 1962, 1979 and 2011.
1962 and 1979 were minority Conservative governments.
And 2011 was an aberrant effect of FPTP. Harper's Conservatives took majority government - a majority of seats in the House of Commons - with only 40 percent of the vote. So it could be said that this was another case of Canadians not voting Conservative when a Democrat was in the White House.
So it is probably best for Justin Trudeau to hold off the next federal election, if he can, until after the next U.S. election on hope that a Democrat is put in White House.
Actually he has no choice. Any election called, even today, would not be held until after the upcoming U.S. election, when a Democrat is looking like he will be elected to WH.
(Democrat Biden was elected in 2020, and Trudeau's (minority) Liberal government was re-elected with a minority of the votes in 1921.)
Thanks for reading.
==========================================
Comments