Twice before, in modern times Alberta has faced outbreaks so dangerous that schools were closed.
Polio 1941-1953
On September 10, 1941 the Alberta government ordered all schools in the province closed due to epidemics of infantile paralysis (poliomyelitis) and encephalitis.
Twelve years later we were still facing polio outbreaks and in 1953, Calgary and Red Deer postponed opening schools because of polio.
That year in Alberta there were 266 cases with 12 deaths.
("Polio scare in Alberta in the 40s and 50s," Calgary Herald, Sept. 9, 2011)
The so-called Spanish flu outbreak in 1918
Schools were closed from October 1918 to the New Year, 1919.
Store hours were also reduced by law to allow families to tend for the sick and due to staff shortages. This law was instituted on Nov. 8, 1918, just for eight days as the peak had already passed by then.
During the course of that epidemic, 30 to 40 percent of the population were expected to fall ill. but in reality only about one in 15 (6 percent fell ill), with one in ten of the sick dying.
The death toll totalled 3259 in Alberta, with about 600 dead in Edmonton, about 1 percent of the people in Edmonton. This doubled the usual death toll.
Today in Edmonton if it is the same as 100 years ago we can expect maybe 50,000 to fall ill with 8,000 dying.
so far in 2020 it is said I think that maybe a third of population will fall ill, 80 percent have only mild to medium symptoms, with about 3 percent of the ill dying. That is one percent of the population dying. This arrives at the same number for Edmonton's 800,000 residents - 8,000 dead. This is of course spread over 800,000 people, and is "only" an approximate doubling of normal death rate.
One medical expert said by time you have three dead, say after three weeks of illness, the sickness at reasonable rate of transmission has gone to 1500 people.
Time span
(Apparently the first wave of the flu barely hit Edmonton. 10,000 were sick in the British Navy, incapacitating the fleet, but luckily the German fleet was also incapacitated at the same time.)
Second wave:
1918 September serious type of flu moving across Canada from east to west.
first case in Edmonton October 19.
By this time its progress had been charted spreading from the U.S. and war-torn France since September.
A day before the first case the Edmonton Board of Health banned all public gatherings, closing the UofA, theatres, schools and churches.
2000 sick within a week.
epidemic peaked in mid-November.
end of November ban on public gatherings lifted.
Later waves of less-lethal flu hit, with some loss of life the following year.
And some succumbed to flu's damage to their systems months later including Alberta's minister of health.
If COVID-19 time span is same:
first case in Edmonton in March
peaking in April with normal activities resuming in late April or early May.
These admittedly are just guesses.
Please take care of you and those around you if you can.
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