My observations on the recent Alberta elections (below) actually might show a basic thing about our FPTP elections - under FPTP there are many change-able variables. More than just the number of votes received by a party determines its seat count.
PR decreases the variables that affect how many seats a party takes.
Under FPTP, there are so many change-able variables that parties formulate their strategies in response to the last election but find themselves in whole new situations when the next one comes around.
But they can only know that after the new votes are counted.
The 87 separate district contest that determine the election results in Alberta elections make it harder for parties to know what will happen. (The same is even more true for Ontario elections where more than 100 districts are used.)
The results of Alberta elections are determined seat-by-seat in 87 separate contests.
In each district, the situation changes from election to election. (the overall effect may be the same for a series of many elections or the party holding the seat may change back and forth each time - either of those patterns - and other patterns - are theoretically possible under FPTP.)
In a district, in two consecutive elections four years apart.
the voters who cast votes are not the same -
not all voters vote in both elections,
any voter 21 years of age or younger at the time of the second election did not vote in the first
one for example.
some voters who voted in both do not vote the same way in both,
new parties are created
old parties close up,
not all parties run candidates in all districts.
economics and perspectives shift over four years.
districts do not always stay the same - at least some boundaries are shifted every decade or so.
Due to these variables (and more), the number and proportion of votes a party receives in each of the 87 separate contests is different from election to election.
Under FPTP, a candidate in a district can win with anywhere from 17 percent of the vote and up, depending on whether or not another candidate has more votes or not.
And then looking at the next level of our representational politics,
a majority of seats ensures majority government
but a seat count of less than majority can give minority government or not, depending on whether or not another party has more seats.
These sort of variables arise from having more than two parties, - the more more, the more the variation possible.
We see this in practical terms in Alberta's last three elections
Alberta 2012
right wing split into two main parties - Conservative ran 87 candidates 600,000 votes
Wildrose ran 86 candidates. 400,000 votes
two-party total: 1M votes
Liberal and NDP also each ran 87 candidates.
other parties as well taking as much as 1700 votes in a district (17 percent of the vote in West Yellowhead)
429 candidates in total. average of 4.9 per district
turnout: 1.3M votes 54 percent of eligible voters
overall votes: Conservative 44 percent of the vote, Wildrose 34 percent, NDP 10 percent
District: Conservative leading in 61 districts, 19 with majority of votes, 42 with minority of votes
wide variation: Conservative candidate won in Ft. McMurray with 2600 votes
Conservative candidate lost in Highwood with 8200 votes
Result: Conservative won majority of seats in the Legislature
Alberta 2015
right wing split into two main parties - Conservative ran 87 candidates
Wildrose ran 86 candidates. two-party total: 774,000 votes
NDP ran 87 candidates.
Liberal ran 56 candidates one taking a seat with 8700 votes (minority of votes in district)
Alberta Party ran 36 candidates, one taking a seat with 7200 votes (minority of votes in district)
other parties running candidates as well
400 candidates in total. average of 4.6 per district
turnout: 1.5M votes 57 percent of eligible voters
overall votes: NDP 41 percent, Conservative 28 percent of the vote, Wildrose 24 percent
District: NDP leading in 54 districts, 23 with majority of votes, 31 with minority of votes
(NDP had majority of votes in more districts than Conservatives had in 2012)
Result: NDP won majority of seats in the Legislature
Alberta 2019
right wing unified in one main party - UCP 87 candidates party total: vote 1.04M
NDP ran 87 candidates.
other parties running candidates as well
492 candidates in total. average of 5.7 per district
turnout: 1.9M votes 68 percent of eligible voters
overall votes: UCP 55 percent; NDP 33 percent
District: UCP leading in 63 districts, 55 with majority of votes, 8 with minority of votes
Result: UCP won majority of seats in the Legislature
2012 right wing split between two main parties NDP and every other party received so few votes in most districts that Conservative won majority of seats (most of them with only minority of votes)
2015 right wing split between two main parties NDP got many more votes than 2012, right win got many less,
NDP won majority of seats (most of them with only minority of votes)
2019 right wing within one main party (UCP)
New UCP took more votes than Cons and Wildrose had in 2012 so it is possible that even if split not mended, one or other of those parties might have taken majority of seats in Legislature in 2019.
UCP had enough votes to win majority of seats (most of them with majority of votes)
Possible outcomes for next election
NDP take same number of votes as 2015/2019, and overall turnout is higher
right wing split perhaps NDP elected to majority of seats or perhaps a right-wing party
right wing not split a right-wing party elected
NDP take same number of votes and overall turnout is same
right wing split perhaps NDP elected to majority of seats or perhaps a right-wing party right wing not split the main right-wing party elected NDP take fewer votes and overall turnout is same or higher right wing split perhaps a right-wing party elected to majority of seats or perhaps NDP (less likely) right wing not split the main right-wing party elected NDP take more votes and overall turnout is same right wing split likely NDP elected to majority of seats
or perhaps a right-wing party (less likely) right wing not split perhaps NDP elected to majority of seats
or perhaps a right-wing party NDP take more votes and overall turnout is higher right wing split perhaps NDP elected to majority of seats
or perhaps a right-wing party (less likely) right wing not split perhaps NDP elected to majority of seats
or perhaps a right-wing party.
But under proper PR there would be fewer variables, fewer possible outcomes
having more votes than the previous election means having more seats and
having fewer votes means winning fewer seats, where number of votes cast are consistent.
How other parties act would not affect how many seats a party takes.
Only how many votes a party receives is important
or to be precise,
only what proportion of the votes cast the party receives determines how many seats it takes.
where PR is overall, say with MMP
each 10 percent of the vote would take 10 percent of the seats
(bearing in mind that small parties not getting threshold, if any, might increase the seat count of successful parties and the absolute number of votes that equals 10 percent of seats would vary with changes in overall turn-out)
where PR is district-based, say with STV of 7-seat district each 13 percent of the vote in a district would take 13 percent of the seats (one seat) in that district (any candidate that takes at least 13 percent of the votes in the district would be elected, taking one seat) (bearing in mind that votes are transferable, even across party lines, votes may be found to be non-transferable and due to this, if seats not filled earlier, the most-popular candidates at the end of the vote count are elected with partial quotas (less than 13 percent of the votes); the absolute number of votes that equals 13 percent of votes would vary with changes in overall turn-out). PR produces much less variability, much more certainty that your vote will be valued the same as those cast for other parties. More electoral justice and equality.
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Similar analysis is given in this blog, based on recent ups and downs of the Alberta NDP:
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