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Tom Monto

How to make Multiple-Member federal ridings

Updated: Dec 20, 2022

Despite what some might think, Canada actually has very many small ridings. More than 200 cover less area than 9000 sq. kms. each and could be combined to make perfectly-manageable multiple-member districts, as I explain here. The structure of Canada ridings is that 24 (the largest ridings) cover about 84 percent of Canada. We have some large ridings (smaller than the largest but still 6 times the average size). Some medium-sized ridings that are smaller than six average ridings but still larget than three average ridings. There are about 75 ridings that are larger than average. All the rest are smaller than average. Some of those are in large cities. 52 are in Toronto alone. So it seems perfectly possible to combine groups of the small ridings to make MMDs.

Ridings in order of size

First we look at the largest ridings. They would be the most difficult to combine with other ridings to make MMDs.


if we identify them and then set aside the area that they hold, we are better able to see how to combine the other ridings to make MMDs.


(ridings below are numbered from largest to smaller in order to identify the various groups (see "categories of ridings" below))


Largest ridings

1 Nunavut 2,093,000 sq. kms


2 NWT 1,346,000


3 Abiti (QU) 854,000


4 Churchill (MN) 495,000


5 Yukon 482,000


6 Desnethe (SK) 343,000


7 Skeena BC 327,000


8 Kenora ON 322,000

9 Labrador 294,000


10 Manicouagan QU 284,000


11 Timmins ON 252,000


12 Prince George C 243,000


13 Ft. McMuray AB 147,000


14 Grande Prairie AB 109,000


15 Peace River Ab 106,000


16 Algoma ON 100,000


17 Thunder Bay ON 88,000


18 Cariboo BC 83,000


19 North Island BC 80,000


20 Cypress Hills SK 78,000


21 Yellowhead AB 76,000


22 Kootenay BC 64,000


23 Lac St John QU 60,000


24 Dauphin MN 57,000


Total area in the "Largst ridings" listed above

in provinces 4,462,000

in territories 3,921,000 39 percent of Canada (3 members)

total in largest ridings (above) 8,383,000


so the 24 largest ridings cover about 84 percent of Canada

=====

Total area of Canada 9,985,000 sq. kms.

province (area of Canada not in Territories): 6,064,000 sq. kms. (335 MPs = 18,000 sq. kms. per)

area not in largest ridings: 1,602,000 sq. kms.


Area in provinces not in largest ridings

provinces total 6,064,000 sq. kms.

area largest ridings in province 4,462,000 sq. kms.

provinces area not in largest ridings

1,602,000 sq. kms. (314 MPs = 5000 sq. kms. per)



rural area in provinces not in largest ridings

(provinces' area not in largest ridings not in cities)

1,600,000 sq. kms. (187 MPs = 8556 sq. kms. per)

Number of MPs

MPs outside largest ridings: 314

MPs in largest ridings territories 3

provinces 21

MPs in cities: 127 (as it stands today)

(list of Canada's largest cities and their expected representation is below. It adds up to about 200 members! Obviously some cities are not represented at ratio of even 100,000 voters per member and many cities are included in districts that take in much more than a single city and take in a relatively few rural voters and a multitude of urban voters.)


MPs outside cities and outside largest ridings: 187


If we consider making multiple-member ridings, we have to consider how large is an acceptable size for a MM riding.

We have to accept that each Territory is to be a single-member riding and that those sparsely-settled ridings that are huge in size cannot be combined with others.

If we look at the 24 largest ridings, we see huge expanses of land at the largest ranging down to ridings just about 6 times the average-sized riding.


what is the average I am using?

I am taking out the 24 largest ridings as being outriders and then leaving aside the city MPs (notionally set at 127 Members) because they altogether cover very little territory.


the area remaining divided by the number of Members remaining gives us an average of 8556 sq. kms. (see below for details)


This average-sized riding covers more area than any city including the City of Toronto.

So using it as a maximum size for a MMD does not prevent the creation of MMDs covering whole cities. - not that all 52 MPs in Toronto would be elected in a single MMD anyway.


Generally there is an outside limit on number of Members used in any MMD we set up.


Ten members is the most ever elected in a single STV contest in Canada historically, and the representation accorded by five-member district is statistically nearly as fine as the representation accorded by 20-member district. The difference between 10 percent as quota and 5 percent as quota is not so significant.


The maximum area that an MMD could cover thus only applies to rural areas -- areas outside the cities.


Maximum size of equivalent of three average-sized ridings

Perhaps a maximum size of equivalent of three average-sized ridings could be set, to make a 3-member district. Thus any three ridings that are smaller than the average could be combined to make a three-member district. Any such district would be less than half the area represented by one Member in 41 districts.


Luckily there are 267 ridings smaller than the average. so we have many suitable candidates to draw from to make these rural MMDs. (see details below)


Maximum size of equivalent of two average-sized ridings

Perhaps a maximum size of equivalent of two average-sized ridings could be set, still to make a 2-member district. Thus any ridings that are smaller than two-thirds of the average could be combined to make a three-member district. Thus 5700 sq kms would be largest size to compose these MMDS. Any such district would be less than the area represented by one Member in 54 districts , each representing an area larger than 1700 sq. kms. Luckily there are 249 ridings smaller than two-thirds the average. so we have many suitable candidates to draw from to make these rural MMDs. (see details below)

Many of these would be in cities. But these are not:

90Lambton

Acadie

92Compton

Cowichan

94Kings

Berthier

96Beauce

Beaujour

Sturgeon River

98Perth

Lees

100Richmond

Chilliwack

102Bellchsse

Haldimand

104Brome

Lethbridge

106Glengarry

Northumberland

108Becancour

Chicoutomi

110Stormont

Cardigan

112Elgin

Oxford

114Dufferin

Sallaberry

116Chatham

Pitt

118Levis

Bay of Quinte

120 Simcoe-Grey


Vimy presumably in Montreal


Kelowna

Saanich


136 Barrie 1000 sq. kms in size is among the smallest rural districts.

it is about 136 in number-order from largest to smallest of the ridings, leaving about 200 for city members.


Abbotsford

Niagara

Thornhill


Regina

and many more

perhaps 60 or so.

thus enough to make 20 or so three-member districts.


the other ridings smaller than two-thirds of the average are inside the cities as listed below.


Each of these cities by itself is large enough to elect multiple members so would each have an MMD just within its own corporate boundaries.


the one-third rule

or we could consider that MMDs could not be larger than the area that one third of the MPs represent by themselves.

One third of the Canada's 338 MPs is 113 MPs.

The 113rd largest riding is Oxford. it has 2384 sq. kms. so quite small.

At that size, the rate of change in the relative size is quick. The 133rd-largest riding (Carleton) is half the size of the Oxford riding.

about 200 ridings are smaller than 1000 sq. kms. in area so even if MMDs are only 1000-2000 kms in size, there are still many than can be combined to make two-seat districts of that size.

(the size halves quickly. The 23rd district after Oxford, the riding that is number 136th in my size ranking - Barrie -the size drops from 2000 to 1000 sq. kms.

About the 150th largest riding is only 650 sq. kms. in size.

So about 180 ridings are small enough to make three-member districts that are smaller than what one third of the MPs each represent by themselves.

Many but not all of them would be in Canada's largest cities (see below)

=====================

City/County rule

One nice thing about multi-member districts is you can use natural pre-existing boundaries to make the MMDs.

Doubtless these units would have different number of voters.

Under single-member district system, the district boundaries are drawn to create arbitrary grouping of voters about the same for each member, but under a MMD system, the number of members could be set differently for each city or county so voters are in their natural groupings and the number of members is altered to create balance.

Cities or county boundaries can be used. spo no gerrymandering.


the ratio of votes to members may be only approximate compared to the artificial equality of our existing single-member districts (but voter turn-out varies uncontrollably so even if our existing dstricts are of approximate equal size, there is still wide variance in the number of votes cast - and of course with vote splitting, there is wide variance in the proportion of votes received by the successful candidate - from 18 percent in some election contests to 70 percent or more sometimes).


but the use of organic recognized boundaries and the high proportion of effective votes under any fair PR voting system means that the relative imbalance is small price to pay.


The overall representation would be light years ahead of our present system.


(see "How many seats in cities?" below)

============


Average riding

Outside of largest ridings, average size of rural ridings (including the small area that cities take up): 8556 sq kms


any MMD of 27,000 sq kms is larger than 3 average small-large ridings.

and is less than half the size of the smallest of the "largest ridings."

====================

Categories of the ridings by size


largest ridings are at least 6 times size of average rural small-large ridings. (24 in number)


large ridings are at least 3 times size of average rural small-medium ridings. (17 in number)

medium-sized ridings smaller than three average ridings but larger than average. (34 in number)

"small ridings" smaller than average 263 in number

338-75 = 263


Three "small ridings" put together are smaller than 41 ridings in Canada today.

Of small ridings 127 are in cities where more than one member is elected.

"Largest ridings" see above


"Large ridings"

25 Battle River AB 53,000

2 26 Coast

Yorkton

4 28Souris

Jonquiere

6 30long

thunder

8 32saint maurice

kamloops

10 34Abitibi

Moose

12 36mission

pontiac

14 38Ncikle

battleford

16 40mission

17 41Carleton 29,000


"Medium-sized ridings" 34 in number

smaller than three average ridings but larger than average

42selkirk 26,000

2 bow river

44Misson

4 foothills

46Laurentiede

6 bonavista

48prince albert

8 49 Provencher QU 19000

50brandon

10 south

52miramacihi

12 gaspesie 17,145

54north okanagan 17,000

14 central okanagan

56nipissing

16 tobiqe

58avignon

18 barrie

60regina

20 west Vancouver

62portage

22 renfrew

64 banff

24 mada

66beauport

26 new

68Central Nova (NS)

28 cape

70West Nova (NS)

30 south

72hastings

32joliet

74hallibut

34 75 Courtenay 8571




average is 8556 sq. kms.

(the land area outside "largest ridings" in provinces, divided by number of MPs in the provinces who are not in cities and not in largest ridings)



263 "Small ridings"

likely includes all city MPs (about 127)

(largest city in Canada today Toronto is 1800 sq. kms. so no city is larger than the average small/large riding.)

ranging from

Cumberland (NS) 8269 sq. kms. to Toronto Centre 6 sq. kms.

==


76 Cumberland (NS) 8269 sq. kms.

Rimouski

78 Fundy

Red Deer

80 Portneuf

Mongmargny

82 Lanark

Avalaon

84 Bruce

Red Deer

86 Megantic

Sue Sault

88 Huron

89 Argentuil is 5700 sq. kms.

...

========


How many seats in each City?


average representation in provinces by population:

38.25M divided by 335 = 114,000 per MP in the provinces


cities larger than 228,000 would be eligible for two members


representation (MPs) per city as MMD could be allocated as per 100,000.

17 cities have more people than that so are due two or more MPs.


City Pop. per 100,000 rounded down actual number of MPs 2021

Toronto 5,648,000 56 56 52


Vancouver 662,000 6

(Vancouver 2,426,000 metro 24 24)


Montreal 1,763,000 city 18 18 18

(Montreal metro 3,675,000 37 36)


Calgary 1,300,000 13 13

Edmonton 1,200,000 12 12

Ottawa-Gatineau 1,100,000 11 11

Winnipeg 759,000 8 7

Quebec City 733,000 7 7

Hamilton 730,000 7 7

Kitchener 523,000 5 5

London 423,000 4 4

Victoria 363,000 4 3

Halifax 349,000 3 3

Oshawa 336,000 3 3

Windsor 307,000 3 3

Saskatoon 265,000 3 2

St. Catharines 242,000 2 2

Total: 202 198


So even just using cities as MMDs means that more than half the members of the House of Commons would be elected in MMDs.


And as I hope I have shown above, about another 60 or more are small enough to make up three-member districts as well.


There is no way that one MP can truly represent the diversity of opinion in his or her riding but three or more could go a long ways toward that true representation of a large proportion of the voters therein.

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