The 2020 national election in Ireland was conducted using STV in 39 multi-member districts with between three and five seats.
(for examination of the 1997 election see farther below.)
Wikipedia tells me:
A Constituency Commission, convened in July 2016 under the provisions of the Electoral Act 1997 with High Court judge Robert Haughton as chair, made recommendations on changes to constituency boundaries after publication of initial population data from the 2016 census.[17][18] The commission had some discretion but was constitutionally bound to allow no more than a ratio of 30,000 people per elected member, and was required by law to recommend constituencies of three, four or five seats, and to avoid – as far as was practicable – breaching county boundaries. The Commission report, released on 27 June 2017, recommended an increase in the number of TDs from 158 to 160 elected in 39 constituencies.[19][20] These changes were implemented by the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2017.[21][22]
The election of the 33rd Dáil was therefore held using the new boundaries, for 160 seats.
============================================
With a quota based on voter turn-out in the various districts and the number of seats in rough proportion to population and thus broadly the number of votes cast, we see quota was very similar from district to district whether the district had five, four or three members.
And although it was possible to be elected with less than quota under specific circumstances, most who were elected did so after surpassing quota, and those who were elected without passing quota in all cases had a vote tally fairly close to quota.
five-member districts
Carlow-Kilkenny Quota 12,274 least-popular successful candidate had 10,543
Cavan-Monaghan quota 12,301 least-popular successful candidate had 10,951
Donegal quota 12,909 least-popular successful candidate had 11,432
Dublin Bay North quota 11,935 least-popular successful candidate had 10,955
Dublin Fingal quota 10,574 least-popular successful candidate had 8340
Dublin SW quota 11,261 least-popular successful candidate had 10,974
Galway West quota 10,057 least-popular successful candidate had 9519
Kerry quota 12,945 least-popular successful candidate had 11,989
Laois-Offaly quota 11,571 least-popular successful candidate had 11,364
Louth quota 11,778 least-popular successful candidate had 10,779
Tipperary quota 12,992 least-popular successful candidate had 11,750
Wexford quota 12,531 least-popular successful candidate had 11,537
Wicklow quota 11,887 least-popular successful candidate had 9622.
highest quota 12,992 Tipperary
lowest quota 10,057 Galway West
lowest vote tally 8340 Dublin Fingal
the range under STV in five-seat districts was a factor of about 1 to 1.5.
Examples of districts of DM of 3 and 4
three-member districts
Cork SW quota 11,085 least-popular successful candidate had 10,078
Cork NW quota 11,593 least-popular successful candidate had 11,173
Galway East quota 10.361 least-popular successful candidate had 10,022
four-member districts
Dun Laghoire quota 12,459 least-popular successful candidate had 11,071
Limerick City quota 9226 least-popular successful candidate had 8207
Mayo quota 12,871 least-popular successful candidate had 10,977
The range of these districts was from 8340 as the least for a successful candidate to 12,992 as the largest vote tally taken by a successful candidate (this is the vote tally counted for the candidate after any surplus votes were taken away from him/her and his/her vote tally was lowered to the quota in that district.)
Thus the range here too was a factor of about 1 to 1.5.
This is much more consistent than the range under FPTP in Canada's last federal election.
Canada's federal 2021 election conducted using FPTP
largest vote tally 44,456 Foothills (Alberta )
lowest vote tally (in provinces) 4119 Labrador (NL)
(Territorial MPs were elected with lower vote tally than Labrador's MP.)
the range under FPTP was a ratio of 1 to 11.
This range was as large as it was despite each district having the same number of members - one member each - and each having about the same number of voters, and thus theoretically having about the same number of votes cast.
The percentage of the votes cast received by successful candidates varied from 76 percent (Souris Moose Mountain) to 29 percent (Trois Riviere).
This was due to plurality being enough to be elected and the vote structure in each district varying widely due to vote splitting, different numbers of candidates competing, etc.
while under STV, quota - as a number of votes - varied much less:
five-seat district 17 percent (a median of about 11,500 votes)
four-seat district 20 percent (a median of about 11,000 votes)
three-seat district 25 percent (a median of about 11,000 votes).
The number of seats in the district varied, the number of votes cast varied but the function of quota meant that quota in each district was about the same number of votes irrespective of size or voter turnout.
=================================================================
1997 Dail election - the case of the Sinn Fein and the Democratic Left
it is said
"Although the system provides representation to minor parties, results in STV elections generally have shown that minor centrist parties benefit from the system and minor radical parties are penalized. For example, though the Democratic Left (Daonlathas Clé) and Sinn Féin, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, received similar shares of the national vote in the Irish general election of 1997, the more centrist Democratic Left won four seats to the Dáil to Sinn Féin’s one."
Examination and other accounts of the 1997 election sheds light on this disparity.
for one it is noted that Ireland's STV uses districts of no more than five seats. thus electorate is divided into 39 districts.
"The small size of the constituencies used, however, usually gives a small advantage to the larger parties and under-represents smaller parties." (Wiki: Dáil Éireann)
Sinn Fein with only 2.5 percent of vote cast overall, was victim to this anticipated result.
so likely nothing at all to do with its "radical" stance.
The SF's 2.5 percent of the votes were spread over 17 candidates so it was spread pretty thin in most cases.
Only one passed quota on 1st Count to be elected in the early part of the count, and when his surplus votes were transferred, there was no other SF candidate in the district to pick up the transfer.
and SF had not made deal with other parties apparently due to the Troubles, so when it transferred its votes they went to no place in particular.
If SF candidate survived long enough it did receive votes sometimes, almost as much as the DL candidate in the only district I see where candidates of the two parties ran against each other (Dublin SW). (if SF did not get transfers, it was likely not due to its "radical"-ness but due to it just being recently joining the game).
But SF did get more than 1 percent of the chamber's seats (one seat).
(in Canada 2021, People Party with 5 percent did not get one seat in HofC with 338 seats.)
Meanwhile Democratic Left candidates received 22,000 votes in just four districts.
Democratic Left members elected in:
Dublin South West 5100 votes
Dublin North West 4 members DL vote tally 3700 vote, 4th in 1st Count. got soem transfers from Independents, National Workers Party. supporters of lowest Fine Fail candidate did not rank other Fine Fail candidate highly. (Sinn Fein did not run here)
Wicklow 5 members. DL was 3rd in 1st Count, 5220 votes, supporters of lowest Fine Gael candidate did not rank leading Fine Gael candidate highly. (Sinn Fein did not run here)
Dun Laogharie 5 members. DL 4th in 1st Count, 7500 votes. well ahead of nearest unsuccessful candidate. (Sinn Fein did not run here)
Dublin SW 5 members. DL 3rd in 1st Count, 5100 votes. well ahead of nearest unsuccessful candidate.
(a Sinn Fein candidate ran here. got 3700 votes on 1st Count, eliminated before surpassing DL's starting vote tally. before his elimination in 6th Count, his vote tally grew by 800. DL's grew by 1100.)
==============================
Sinn Fein took 46,000 votes overall
25,000 votes in four districts (compared to DL's 22,000 votes in four districts).
top four districts of each party compared
Democratic Left Sinn Fein
Dun ... 7500 quota 9000 elected* Cavan 12,000 quota 9900 elected by q.***
Wicklow 5200 quota 8700 elected** Kerry N 5700 quota 8900 not elected
Dublin SW 5100 quota 7000 elected* Dublin SW 3700 quota 7000 not elected
Dublin NW 3700 quota 7300 elected** Sligo 3200 quota 9000 not elected
*elected in last count passing quota
**elected in last count without passing quota.
*** elected in first count by passing quota
So as we see, Sinn Fein was popular in Cavan where it topped the polls and took full quota.
That used up more than a quarter of the party's entire votes, to get one seat.
The other places where SF mostly took its votes had high quota compared to Democratic Left's strongholds.
and as we see, Democratic Left's successes were long shots. It won two of its seats without receiving quota.
The DL had good luck in the district breakdown of its votes.
The SF did not have the same good luck in the district breakdown of its votes.
But despite only getting 2.5 percent of the votes cast in the country as a whole, Sinn Fein did get one seat. And that was launching pad for later becoming the most-popular party in the country.
(by comparison it can be seen that Canada's FPTP does not give small parties as easy a time.
in Canada 2021, People Party with 5 percent of the vote across Canada did not get even one seat in the HofC, with 338 seats.)
=========================
Sinn Fein vote in detail
18,000 of them in Cavan and Kerry North. so that is almost half the party vote used to get one seat (SF did not win the Kerry North seat)
(SF candidates also ran in:
1Cork East 1500 votes, 2nd last place in 1st count. vote transfers went almost evenly to all other candidates.
2Cork N-Central 1700 votes almost at bottom, vote transfers went almost evenly to all other candidates.
3Donegal NE 2900 votes well down on 1st Count, half of quota on 1st Count. vote transfers went almost evenly to all other candidates.
4Dublin Central 2400 votes, less than half of quota.
5Dublin NE 2200 votes
6Dublin S Central 1900 (less than half of quota)
7Dublin SW 3700
8Dublin W 2000
9Galway west 1200
10Longford 160
11Louth 2800
12Meath 2000
13Sligo 3200
approx. 27,400 votes received by the candidatea in the 13 districts listed above
(SF did not run in: Carlow
Clare
Cork NW
Cork S-Central
Cork SW
Donegal SW
Dublin N
Dublin N Central
Dublin NW
Dublin S
Dublin SE
Galway East
Kerry South
Kildare N
Koildare S
Laoighois...
Limerick East
Limerick West
Mayo
Tipperary North
Tipperary South
waterford
Westmeath
Wexford
Sin Fein won one seat Cavan... (this was its first victory since 1957.)
SF narrowly missed out on seat in Kerry North.
Kerry North 3 members
no DL ran in the district.
FF votes were split over two candidates. When it concentrated on just one, he passed the SF candidate.
Cavan...
topped the polls in that district with 12,000 votes, 1.16 quota
no other SF candidate ran in the district so unused quota did not help SF party.
vote transfers went fairly evenly to all other candidates.
=====================================
コメント