Working with rabbits one day, i saw an interesting thing that i would like to share with you.
About 20 or so were in an enclosure. They had formed themselves into groups although I did not notice much about it until I opened a fence to allow them to go into other section.
Most did not notice the opening.
One walked up and looked at it then looked back at the others who were staying where they were and walked back to the old fold.
A rabbit looking official and with a couple rabbits following him, in his circle around the fold, approached the opening but did not move to enter the new area - he was happy where he was.
One loner looked at the opening and entered. He looked back but none followed him. He stayed though and enjoyed the new forage there.
No more entered by the time I had to leave. When I came back next day they were distributed around the new and old folds.
The point is, unlike Jared Diamond in his book Collapse How Societies Choose to Fall or Survive, I don't believe civilizations choose to fall or survive. The ordinary people have very little input into the process, for example. And the leadership may not see the problem, may not see its seriousness, may choose not to do anything about it or may take action too little, too late or in the wrong direction. (Note added later: I understand that Diamond's new book Upheaval - Turning Points for Nations in Crisis actually covers some of the points i describe here.)
Seldom, I imagine, is a civilization faced with a problem that is both easily detected and easily solved and then not take action to save itself.
Also I imagine seldom is there a threat that is uniformly a threat to all parts of society. The leadership being coddled, served and domiciled in the centre, are insulated from threats that affect the poor or the peripheral parts of its civilization. Leadership may think such a threat that hurts the poor or the periphery is not serious until too late, or may not care about the loss, seeing the poor as expendable and being too involved in its own pleasure or status-seeking to even think about it.
A leader, say one that was elected with the support of oil workers, will need lots of persuasion to turn his attention to a new field of business activity, due to the built-in expectations put on him. Perhaps his civilization can thrive on oil -- he is betting it will. He may be wrong...
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