Most of the candidates who received large numbers of first-preference votes are elected in an STV-PR election.
We see this in the 2007 STV-PR elections to Scotland's 32 Local Government Councils. These elections take place in 352 separate districts.
Candidates here classified by position in relation to numbers of first preferences received: leading, second, third, etc.
190 three-member wards electing 570
Position in 1st Count elected
Leading 190
Second 185
Third 165
Fourth 26
Fifth 4
total 570
all those in first place in 1st Count were elected,
all but five of those in second were elected
all but 25 of those in third place were elected.
26 of the candidates in fourth place were elected (after vote transfers had moved them up to the top three)
in four districts the candidate in fifth place in the 1st Count moved up to win seat.
163 four-member wards electing 652
Position elected
Leading 163
Second 163
Third 160
Fourth 146
Fifth 15
Sixth 3
Seventh 1
Eighth 1
total 652
all those in first an second place in 1st Count were elected,
all but 3 of those in third place were elected.
all but 17 of those in fourth place were elected.
15 of the candidates in fifth place were elected,
in five districts the candidate in sixth, seventh or eighth place in the 1st Count moved up to win seat.
So first preferences are most important, but transfers (later preferences) do matter.
Many people emphasize how STV uses ranked votes but actually the main fairness of the STV election method is due to single voting (one person - one vote) in a multi-member district. The vote transfers (made possible by the ranked ballots) only polish the basic balance arrived at already in the 1st Count.
In the Scottish results from computerised counts, the only surplus votes not transferred are those (if any) accruing to the candidate last elected when there were only two continuing candidates for the last remaining vacancy.
In all other circumstances, all surpluses, no matter how small, are transferred.
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James Gilmour of Scoland was the source of this information.
Any mistakes are my own - Tom Monto
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