Tom Monto, Edmonton, June 22, 2019
Overall the results of the 2018 Ontario Election were disproportional to the voters' support for the parties. As well, a large number of MLAs were elected without the approval of a majority of the voters in their district. These statements are explained below. This election is evidence of the need to do away with First Part The Post and bring in proportional representation - STV preferably, as I will explain in other posts.
The Progressive Conservatives won 61 percent of the seats with little more than 40 percent of the vote, the NDP won about a third of the seats with about a third of the votes, the Liberals received 20 per cent of the vote but instead of the 25 seats it was due it received only 7 seats. The Green Party with five percent of the vote deserved six seats but was unusually lucky for such a small party operating in a First past the post system, to get even the one seat it got.
The vagaries of the First past the post system is shown by the PCs receiving only 10 percent more of the vote compared to the last election but tripling its number of seats. The government thus faces the dilemma of governments elected under FPTP - with only a minor change in voting behaviour, with a loss of just 10 percent of the vote, or a small portion of the silent minority (the half the voters who did not vote) casting votes against it, the government could lose its hold on power.
About three-fifths of the MLAs were elected without receiving a majority of the votes in their districts. A majority of the votes in these districts were wasted.
All the Green Party caucus (the one) received the majority of the votes where he ran. But more than half of all the MLAs of the other parties (44 of the PCP MLAs, 22 of the NDP MLAs, and all the Liberals (seven)) were elected without a majority in the districts where they ran and were elected. Thus the PC government has power under a system where most of its MLAs did not have the support of even the voters within their own districts. And this meant that literally millions of votes had no impact on the election.
Seats in total: 76 PCP , 40 NDP, 7 Lib, 1 Green = 124 PCP elected with majority 33, without majority 43 total 76
NDP elected with majority 17 without majority 23 total 40
Lib elected with majority 0 without a majority 7 total 7
Green elected with majority 1 without a majority 0 total 1
This information is tabulated below, showing the percentage of the vote received by the candidates of the main parties and whether the elected MPP had the support of a majority or just a minority of the voters in the district. This information is not clearly presented anywhere else at least as far as I could discover. (It was typed into the Wikipedia site but quickly removed.) It is a consolidation of the various districts' "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate Provincial General Election - 2018" provided by Elections Ontario.
Majority/Minority representation in each district Name of District (sometimes with the district number), percentage of vote received by candidates of the main parties (rounded off), then the party elected and whether elected with minority or majority support of the voters in the district
Districts numbered 1 to 40:
Ajax PCP 39, NDP 31, Lib 26, Green 3 = PCP Minority
Algoma-Manitoulin NDP 59, PCP 25, Lib 8, NOP 5, Green 4 = NDP Majority
Aurora-Oak Ridges Richmond Hill PCP 56, Lib 22, NDP 18, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Barrie Innisfil PCP 50, NDP 29, Lib 13 = PCP Maj
5. Barrie - Springwater Oro Medonte PCP 45, NDP 28, Lib 14, Green 12 = PCP Min
Bay of Quinte PCP 48, NDP 32, 15 Lib, Green 3 = PCP min
Beaches - East York NDP 48, Lib 27, PCP 18, Green 4 = NDP min
Brampton Centre NDP 38.4, PCP 38.1, Lib 17, Green 3, Libertarian 2 = NDP min Brampton East NDP 47, PCP 34, Lib 17, Green 1 = NDP min
10 Brampton North NDP 38 PCP 36, Lib 21, Green 3 = NDP min
Brampton South PCP 41, NDP 34, Lib 19, Green 4 = PCP Min
Brampton West PCP 39, NDP 38, Lib 19, Green 3 = PCP Min
Brantford- Brant PCP 42, NDP 41, Lib 10, Green 5 = PCP Min
Bruce-Grey - Owen Sound PCP 55, NDP 24, Lib 12, Green 6 = PCP Maj
15 Burlington PCP 40, NDP 29, Lib 25, Green 5 = PCP Min
Cambridge PCP 37, NDP 33, Lib 23, Green 6 = PCP Min
Carleton PCP 51, NDP 23, Lib 19, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Chatham - Leamington PCP 52, NDP 36, Lib 8, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Davenport NDP 60, Lib 19, PCP 16, Green 4 = NDP maj
20. Don Valley East Lib 36, PCP 33, NDP 27, Green 3 = Lib min
Don Valley North PCP 44, Lib 31, NDP 21, Green 3 = PCP Min
Don Valley West Lib 38.9, PCP 38.5, NDP 19, Green 3 = Lib min
Dufferin - Caledon PCP 53, NDP 20, Green 12.5, Lib 12.5 = PCP Maj
Durham PCP 47, NDP 32, LIb 17, Green 4 = PCP Min 25
25. Eglinton - Lawrence PCP 40, Lib 38, NDP 18, Green 2 = PCP Min
Elgin- Middlesex - London PCP 56, NDP 32, Lib 7, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Essex NDP 48, PCP 43, Lib 6, Green 4 = NDP min
Etobicoke Centre PCP 43, Lib 35, NDP 18, Green 2 = PCP Min
Etobicoke - Lakeshore PCP 38, NDP 33, Lib 24, Green 4 = PCP Min
30 Etobicoke North PCP 53, NDP 25, Lib 18, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Flamborough- Glanbrook PCP 44, NDP 34, Lib 15, Green 5 = PCP Min
Glengarry- Prescott - Russell PCP 41, Lib 32, NDP 22, Green 3 = PCP Min
Guelph Green Party 45, PCP 21.8, NDP 21.6, Lib 10 = Green Maj
Haldimand - Norfolk PCP 57, NDP 27, Lib 9, Green 4 = PCP Maj 35
35 Haliburton Kawartha Lakes - Brock PCP 57, NDP 27, Lib 10, Green 5 = PCP Maj
Hamilton Centre NDP 66, PCP 16, Lib 11, Green 6 = NDP maj
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek NDP 51, PCP 29, Lib 12, Green 4 = NDP maj
Hamilton Mountain NDP 55, PCP 29, Lib 9, Green 5 = NDP maj
Hamilton West - Ancaster - Dundas NDP 43, PCP 31, Lib 20, Green 4 = NDP min
40 Hastings - Lennox and Addington PCP 50.3, NDP 32, Lib 12, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Dist. #1-#40 (40): 26 PCP 11 maj 15min; 11 NDP 5 maj 6 min; 2 Lib 2 min; 1 Grn 1 maj Districts numbered 41 to 80
Humber River - Black Creek NDP 37, PCP 30, Lib 28 = NDP min
Huron - Bruce PCP 52, NDP 29, Lib 14, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Kanata - Carleton PCP 43, NDP 29, Lib 17, Green 5 = PCP Min
Kenora - Rainy River PCP 49, NDP 37, Lib 11, Green 4 = PCP Min
45 King - Vaughan PCP 57, Lib 23, NDP 15, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Kingston and the Islands NDP 39, Lib 28, PCP 26, Green 6 = NDP min
Kitchener Centre NDP 43, PCP 38, Lib 20, Green 7 = NDP min
Kitchener - Conestoga PCP 40, NDP 38, Lib 14, Green 7 = PCP Min
Kitchener South Hespeler PCP 39, NDP 37, Lib 15, Green 8 = PCP Min
50 Lambton - Kent - Middlesex PCP 55, NDP 33, LiB 6, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Lanark - Frontenac- Kingston PCP 52, NDP 31, Lib 11, Green 5 = PCP Maj
Leeds- Grenville - Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PCP 61, NDP 20, Lib 13, Green 5 = PCP Maj
London - Fanshawe NDP 56, PCP 30, Lib 8, Green 5 = NDP maj
London North Centre NDP 48, PCP 31, Lib 16, Green 5 = NDP min
55 London West NDP 55, PCP 29, Lib 10, Green 4 = NDP maj
Markham - Stouffville PCP 48, Lib 26, NDP 20, Green 4 = PCP Min
Markham - Thornhill PCP 51, Lib 24, NDP 21, Green 2 = PCP Maj
Markham - Unionville PCP 62, Lib 18, NDP 17, Green 2 = PCP Maj
Milton PCP 42, Lib 30, NDP 22, Green 5 = PCP Min
60 Mississauga Centre PCP 41, NDP 28, Lib 25, Green 3 = PCP Min
Mississaugua East - Cooksville PCP 41, Lib 30, NDP 23, Green 4 = PCP Min
Mississauga - Erin Mills PCP 42, NDP 27, Lib 25, Green 3 = PCP Min
Mississauga - Lakeshore PCP 42, Lib 35, NDP 18, Green 3 = PCP Min
Mississauga - Malton PCP 39, NDP 33, Lib 21, Ind 3, Green 2 = PCP Min
65 Mississauga - Streetsville PCP 44, NDP 25.8, Lib 25.7, Green 3 = PCP Min
Nepean PCP 45, NDP 28, Lib 20, Green 5 = PCP Min
Newmarket - Aurora PCP 48, NDP 24, Lib 23, Green 4 = PCP Min
Niagara Centre NDP 44, PCP 38, Lib 12, Green 4 = NDP Min
Niagara Falls NDP 51, PCP 36, Lib 9, Green 4 = NDP maj
70 Niagara West PCP 53, NDP 30, Lib 11, Green 6 = PCP Maj
Nickel Belt NDP 64, PCP 22, Lib 9, Green 3 = NDP maj
Nipissing PCP 49.9, NDP 37, Lib 8, Green 3 = PCP Min
Northumberland - Peterborough South PCP 45, NDP 25, Lib 24, Green 5 = PCP Min Oakville PCP 44, Lib 36, NDP 17, Green 4 = PCP Min
75 Oakville North - Burlington PCP 46, NDP 24, Lib 24, Green 4 = PCP Min
Orléans Lib 39, PCP 35, NDP 22, Green 3 = Lib min
Oshawa NDP 45, PCP 42, Lib 8, Green 4 = NDP min
Ottawa Centre NDP 46, Lib 33, PCP 16, Green 4 = NDP min
Ottawa South Lib 40, PCP 30, NDP 27, Green 3 = Lib min
80 Ottawa - Vanier Lib 43, NDP 30, PCP 21, Green 4 = Lib min
Districts numbered 40 - 80: 40 districts: 26 PCP 8 maj 18 min; 11 NDP 4 maj 7 min; 3 Lib 3 min
Districts numbered 81 to 124:
81 Ottawa West - Nepean PCP 32.8, NDP 32.5, Lib 29, Green 4 = PCP Min
Oxford PCP 56, NDP 30, Lib 7, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Parkdale - High Park NDP 59, PCP 18, Lib 17, Green 5 = NDP maj
Parry Sound - Muskoka PCP 48, NDP 22, Green 20, Lib 9 = PCP Min
85 Perth - Wellington PCP 51, NDP 31, Lib 11, Green 6 = PCP Maj
Peterborough - Kawartha PCP 38, NDP 34, Lib 25, Green 3 = PCP Min
Pickering - Uxbridge PCP 42, NDP 32, Lib 20, Green 4 = PCP Min
Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke PCP 69, NDP 17, Lib 10, Green 3 = PCP Maj
Richmond Hill PCP 51, Lib 28, NDP 17, Green 3 = PCP Maj
90 St. Catharines NDP 37, PCP 34, Lib 25, Green 4 = NDP min
Sarnia - Lambton PCP 53, NDP 37, Lib 4.4, Green 4 = PCP Maj
Sault Ste. Marie PCP 42, NDP 41, Lib 10, Green 3 = PCP Min
Scarborough - Agincourt PCP 50.4, Lib 28, NDP 18, Green 2 = PCP Maj
Scarborough Centre PCP 38, NDP 33, Lib 22, Libertarian 3, Green 2 = PCP Min
95 Scarborough - Guildwood Lib 33.3, PCP 33.1, NDP 28, Green 2 = Lib min
Scarborough North PCP 51, NDP 24, Lib 22, Green 2 = PCP Maj
Scarborough - Rouge Park PCP 39, NDP 36, Lib 21, Green 2 = PCP Min
Scarborough Southwest NDP 46, PCP 31, Lib 19, Green 3 = NDP min
Simcoe - Grey PCP 56, NDP 22, Lib 14, Green 7 = PCP Maj
100 Simcoe North PCP 47, NDP 28, Lib 18, Green 7 = PCP Min
Spadina - Fort York NDP 49.6, Lib 24, PCP 22, Green 4 = NDP min
Stormont - Dundas - South Glengarry PCP 62, NDP 22, Lib 12, Green 4 = PCP Maj Sudbury NDP 48, PCP 23, Lib 22, Green 4 = NDP min.
Thornhill PCP 61, NDP 19, Lib 15, Green 2 = PCP Maj
105 Thunder Bay - Atikokan NDP 36.3, Lib 36, PCP 23, Green 3 = NDP min
Thunder Bay - Superior North Lib 40, NDP 37, PCP 18, Green 3 = Lib min
Timiskaming - Cochrane NDP 61, PCP 22, Lib 9, NOP 4, Green 3 = NDP maj
Timmins NDP 57, PCP 30, Lib 9, Green 2 = NDP maj
Toronto Centre NDP 54, Lib 27, PCP 14, Green 3 = NDP maj
110 Toronto - Danforth NDP 64, PCP 16, Lib 14, Green 4 = NDP maj
Toronto - St. Paul's NDP 36, Lib 33, PCP 26, Green 3 = NDP min
University - Rosedale NDP 49.7, Lib 22, PCP 21, Green 5 = NDP min
Vaughan - Woodbridge PCP 51, Lib 32, NDP 15, Green 2 = PCP Maj
Waterloo NDP 50.5, PCP 31, Lib 12, Green 5 = NDP maj
115 Wellington - Halton Hills PCP 54, NDP 24, Lib 13, Green 9 = PCP Maj
Whitby PCP 46, NDP 37, Lib 13, Green 3 = PCP Min
Willowdale PCP 44, Lib 27, NDP 26, Green 2 = PCP Min.
Windsor - Tecumseh NDP 58, PCP 27, Lib 8, Green 4 = NDP maj
Windsor West NDP 52, PCP 29, Lib 15, Green 4 = NDP maj 120
120 York Centre PCP 50.1, NDP 23, Lib 21, Green 2 = PCP Maj
York - Simcoe PCP 57, NDP 23, Lib 14, Green 5 = PCP Maj
York South - Weston NDP 36, PCP 33, Lib 28, Green 3 = NDP min
Kiiwetinoong NDP 49.9, PCP 27, Lib 15, Green 6 = NDP min
Mushkegowuk - James Bay NDP 52, PCP 30, Lib 14, Green 2 = NDP maj #81-#124 44 districts:
PCP 24 (maj 14 min 10); NDP 18 (maj 9 min 9); Lib min 2 = 44
Math Round-up
Dist. #1-#40 (40 districts):
26 PCP (11 maj 15 min); 11 NDP (5 maj 6 min); 2 Lib (2 min); 1 Grn (1 maj)
Dist. #41-#80 (40 districts):
26 PCP (8 maj 18 min); 11 NDP (4 maj 7 min); 3 Lib (3 min)
Dist. #81-#124 (44 districts):
24 PCP (14 maj 10 min); 18 NDP (9 maj 9 min); 2 Lib (2 min)
Seats in total: 76 PCP , 40 NDP, 7 Lib, 1 Green = 124 PCP elected with majority 33, without majority 43 total 76
NDP elected with majority 17 without majority 23 total 40
Lib elected with majority 0 without a majority 7 total 7
Green elected with majority 1 without a majority 0 total 1
majority 51 minority 73 TOTAL 124
41 percent 59 percent
======================================================================
Comments