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Tom Monto

The random-ness of our "funhouse-mirror" democracy - Canadian federal elections

Updated: May 24

In Canadian elections over last 50 years, different percentages of voter support yielded the same number of MPs in the House of Commons. And the same percent of voter support yielded varying numbers of MPs in the House of Commons. Small parties never got their fair share of seats, often getting zero seats. The leading party usually received 10 to 25 percent higher percent of seats than its vote share. Here's digest of the varying results in each bracket. 2 to 4 percent of votes == percent of seats range is zero to less than 1 percent (.6) 5 to 9 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 0 to 4 percent (leaving aside the BQ results) 10 to 14 percent votes just one example == seat percent 4 percent (leaving aside BQ results) 15 to 19 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 6 to 12 percent 20 to 29 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 13 to 25 percent 30 to 34 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 29 to 47 35 to 39 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 40 to 54 40 to 49.7 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 52 to 75 in last 23 years, in Canadian federal elections, parties have received widely varying vote-percent to seat-percent ratios. In the list below, the almost random results can be seen by the parties being arranged according to vote share growing progressively larger while the respective seat share bounces around. =============================== Here is list of party election results, from least popular to most popular, showing that at each level parties receive widely varying number of MPs. (where a bracket has multiple examples, that is.) all major parties of last 23 years are shown here. also shown are leading parties' totals for last 50 years. parties with less than 2 percent vote share not listed here. 2 to 4 percent of votes == percent of seats range is zero to less than 1 (.6) percent 2021 opposition Greens 2 percent of votes less than one percent of seats (.6 percent) 2/338 2019 People's Party 2 percent of votes 0 seats 0/338 2015 Greens 3 percent of votes less than one percent of seats (.3 percent) 1/338 2011 Greens 4 percent of votes less than one percent of seats (.3 percent) 1/308 5 to 9 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 0 to 4 (leaving aside the BQ results) 2021 opposition People's Party 5 percent of votes 0 seats 0/338 2015 opposition BQ 5 percent of votes 3 percent of seats 10/338 2011 BQ (regional party) 6 percent of votes 1 percent of seats 4/308

2019 Greens 7 percent of votes 1 percent of seats 3/338 2008 Greens 7 percent of votes 0 percent of seats 0/308 2021 opposition BQ (regional party) 8 percent of votes 9 percent of seats 32/338 2019 opposition BQ (regional party) 8 percent of votes 9 percent of seats 32/338 2000 opposition (NDP) 9 percent of votes 4 percent of seats 13/301

10 to 14 percent of votes == percent of seats 4 percent (leaving aside the BQ results) 2008 opposition BQ (regional party) 10 percent of votes 16 percent of seats 49/308 2006 opposition BQ (regional party) 10 percent of votes 17 percent of seats 51/308 2000 opposition (BQ) (regional party) 11 percent of votes 13 percent of seats 38/301 2000 opposition (Prog.-Cons) 12 percent of votes 4 percent of seats 12/301 2004 opposition BQ (regional party) 12 percent of votes 11 percent of seats 34/301

15 to 19 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 6 to 12 percent 2004 opposition NDP 16 percent of votes 6 percent of seats 19/301 2019 opposition NDP 16 percent of votes 7 percent of seats 24/338 2006 opposition NDP 17 percent of votes 9 percent of seats 29/308 2008 opposition NDP 18 percent of votes 12 percent of seats 37/308 2021 opposition NDP 18 percent of votes 7 percent of seats 25/338 2011 opposition Lib 19 percent of votes 11 percent of seats 34/308 20 to 26 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 13 to 25 percent 2015 opposition NDP 20 percent of votes 13 percent of seats 44/338 2000 opposition (Cons) 25 percent of votes 22 percent of seats 66/301

2008 opposition Lib 26 percent of votes 25 percent of seats 77/308 30 to 35 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 29 to 47 2004 opposition Cons 30 percent of votes 33 percent of seats 99/301 2006 opposition Lib 30 percent of votes 33 percent of seats 103/308 2011 opposition NDP 31 percent of votes 33 percent of seats 103/308 2015 opposition Cons 32 percent of votes 29 percent of seats 99/338 2021 government (Lib) 33 percent of votes 47 percent of seats 160/338 2019 government (Lib) 33 percent of votes 46 percent of seats 157/338 2019 opposition Cons 34 percent of votes 36 percent of seats 121/338 2021 opposition Cons 34 percent of votes 35 percent of seats 119/338 35 to 39 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 40 to 54 none of these parties received majority of the vote but many did get majority government. 2006 government (Conservative) 36 percent of votes 40 percent of seats 124/308 1979 government (Conservative) 36 percent of votes 48 percent of seats 2004 government (Lib) 37 percent of votes 44 percent of seats 135/308 2008 government (Cons) 38 percent of votes 46 percent of seats 143/308 1972 government (Lib) 39 percent of votes 41 percent of seats 1997 government (Lib) 39 percent of votes 52 percent of seats 2015 government (Lib) 39 percent of votes 54 percent of seats 184/338 40 to 49.7 percent of votes == percent of seats range is 52 to 75 percent none of these parties received majority of the vote but all got majority government. 2011 government (Cons) 40 percent of votes 54 percent of seats 166/308 2000 government (Lib) 41 percent of votes 57 percent of seats (172/301) 1974 government (Lib) 43 percent of votes 53 percent of seats 1988 government (Conservative) 43 percent of votes 57 percent of seats 1993 government (Lib) 43 percent of votes 60 percent of seats 1982 government (Lib) 44 percent of votes 52 percent of seats 1984 government (Conservative) 49.7 percent of votes 75 percent of seats =========================== So that is what I mean by "funhouse mirror" democracy. A certain amount of vote share goes in and and there is almost no telling how many seats a party will win. Food for thought... Happy New Year - may it be at least better than the last one!

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SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS


Here is an update following our conversation last year. 

Appendix 1: Evolution of the Federal Electoral System in The Electoral System of Canada will be reviewed and revised to correct the error you brought to our attention.

The other article we discussed – the article about Agnes Macphail – was published in a magazine called Electoral Insight. The magazine ceased publication in 2006 and will be removed from our website as part of a larger project we are working on to update our web content.

Thanks, again, for taking the time to contact us about the errors and for your patience as we address them.

And, in case you’re interested, here are some of Elections Canada’s resources on the history of voting rights in Canada that I find useful: 

A History of the Vote in Canada (2021, third edition)

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