[this is an updated version of an earlier Montopedia blog
Since Confederation, Canada has been mostly governed by a system of minority rule.
Almost every time, the governing party has received only a minority of the votes cast in the last election. Sometimes the governing party has minority of the seats, so has to work with other parties to pass laws, but sometimes a party that received just a minority of the votes captures a majority of the seats and thus has the power to pass laws by itself. At least two majority governments elected before 1921 did not have majority of the votes cast. There may have been more - the vote tallies for those old elections are not actually known. And after 1921, all but three or four majority government did not have majority of votes.
In the last 60 years there has been only one government elected with a majority of the vote.
One reading of election results has it that in only three (or four) elections since 1921 has the elected government received a majority of the vote. And there were only three elections before that when a party won a majority of the vote. The only real difference is that before 1921 almost every election saw one party take a majority of the seats, usually with majority of the votes, while after 1921 minority governments have been much more common, reflecting the fact that in almost all elections even the leading party took less than half the votes.
A majority government elected with only the support of a minority of the votes is minority rule. A minority government elected with a minority of the vote is both minority rule and unstable - easy and early to fall.
Canada has always had more than just two parties. Labour, farmer or other third parties have run in federal elections since 1867, the year Canada began with the union of separate British colonies.
In fact a third party ran in 1867 itself. In addition to the Liberal and Conservative party, there was the Anti-Confederation Party. This provincial/regional-based party took 18 seats.
The early appearance of these non-Liberal and non-Conservative candidates aside, 1921 is often taken as the start of third-party politics when it is said Canada broke out of the two-party straitjacket that had previously stifled hopes of proper representation for labour, farmers and socialists.
Thus, since Confederation, there may have been only six governments elected with a majority of the vote. (A different reading of party vote tallies through history has it that a single party took a majority of votes more often that but still in both renditions of the election results, there were obvious and multiple instances of minority-elected majority governments both before 1921 and after 1921.
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Canada's federal elections
(Bold lettering shows the few majority governments that were elected by a majority of voters.)
2021 Trudeau minority 32.5 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 300,000 more votes than Liberals)
(lowest percentage of vote that produced government)
2019 Trudeau minority 33 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 1 percent more of vote than Liberals)
(lowest percentage of vote up to then that produced government)
2015 Trudeau majority 39 percent of the vote
(No first-time government has won majority government with a smaller share of
the vote than this election)
2011 Harper majority 40 percent of the vote
2008 Harper minority 38 percent
2006 Harper minority 36 percent
2004 Martin minority 37 percent of vote
2000 Chretien majority 41 percent of vote
1997 Chretien majority 38 percent of vote
(lowest percentage of vote that produced majority government)
(Chretien's Liberals took 52 percent of the seats.)
1993 Chretien majority 41 percent of vote
1988 Mulroney majority 43 percent
1984 Mulroney majority 50.03 percent
1980 Trudeau minority 44 percent of vote
1979 Clark (Conservative) minority 36 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Pierre Trudeau's Liberals received 40 percent of the vote)
1974 Trudeau majority 43 percent of the vote
1972 Trudeau minority 38 percent of the vote
1968 Trudeau majority 46 percent of the vote
1965 Pearson minority 40 percent of vote
1963 Pearson minority 42 percent of vote
1962 Diefenbacker Conservative minority 37 percent of vote
1958 Diefenbacker Conservative majority 54 percent of vote
(second largest percentage of the vote a government received)
1957 Diefenbacker Conservative minority 39 percent of vote
(wrong-winner election: Liberals got 41 percent of the vote)
1953 St. Laurent majority 48 percent of the vote
1949 St. Laurent majority 49 percent of the vote
(the Liberals may have had a slight majority of votes in this election.)
1945 King minority 40 percent of the vote
1940 King majority 51 percent
1935 King majority 45 percent of the vote
1930 Bennett majority 48 percent of the vote
1926 King minority 43 percent of the vote
1925 Meighen minority 46 percent of the vote
1921 King majority/minority 41 percent of the vote
(the last part of the 1921-1925 term was minority government)
1917 Borden majority 57 percent of the vote
(Borden's much-disparaged wartime election was riddled with unfairness)
(largest percentage of the vote in any federal election)
1911 Borden majority 49 percent of the vote
1908 Laurier majority 49 percent
1904 Laurier majority 50.9
1900 Laurier majority 50.3
1896 Laurier majority 41 percent of the vote
(wrong-winner election: Conservatives got 3 percent more of vote than Libs)
1891 Macdonald majority 49 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1887 Macdonald majority 47 percent (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1882 Macdonald majority 40 percent (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1878 Macdonald majority 42 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
1874 Mackenzie Liberal majority 40 percent of the vote
1872 Macdonald minority 39 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
(first minority federal government in Canada,
(Independents took 6 seats (see my blog "1872 election produced..."))
1867 Macdonald majority 35 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons)
(A more liberal reading of party vote tallies has it that almost all the majority governments prior to 1921 were actually elected by a majority of the votes.
The only false majority elections, according to that source, were 1872 and 1896.
We can't know what is correct - in the earliest elections in Canada, votes were not even written but were given orally amid threats, party noises and mob behaviour. So there was bound to be some loose book-keeping.
And according to that source, the 1949 government was also elected by majority of the voters, in addition to the 1940, 1958 and 1984 governments I identify that way in the list above.
Even if we accept this more liberal report, we have many majority-majority governments prior to 1921 but only four in the hundred years since 1921.)
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A fundamental feature of our FPTP system is that a party can form a “false majority” government - that is, capturing a majority of the seats without receiving a majority of the popular vote.
Federal majority governments based on majority of the popular vote are rare, possibly only six in the history of Canada.
Sometimes the governing party has minority of the seats so has to work with other parties to pass laws but sometimes a party that received just a minority of the votes captures a majority of the seats and thus by itself has the power to pass any laws it wants. At least two majority governments elected before 1921 did not have majority of the votes cast. There may have been more, the vote tallies for those old elections are not actually known. And after 1921, all but three or four majority government did not have majority of votes.
In the last 60 years there has been only one government elected with a majority of the vote. This was 40 years ago, This was the only one in the last 60 years. in 1984 under Brian Mulroney, whose party gained just 50.03 percent of the vote.
By tying the number of seats of each party more closely to its share of the popular vote, PR would make it more difficult to elect majority governments formed by a single party with less than half the vote.
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Minority rule
in all but six elections a party with only a minority of the votes has taken government.
In many cases the leading party with less than half the votes has only taken a minority of the seats. But the minority party, at least for as long as it is in power, has the support of a majority of the MPs and thus 100 percent of the power.
An extreme case of over-representation of the leading party was 1935.
In 1935 Liberals won majority government (173 seats) with only 45 percent of the vote. leaving the majority of voters, spread over four parties, with only 72 seats.
False majorities = all but six of Canada's governments
in the last 150-plus years only six governments have been elected with a majority of the vote.
Only one of last 19 governments, which is going back to 1962, had the support of a majority of voters.
Only one of last eight majority governments, which is going back to 1968, had a majority of the votes. (Mulroney 1984 50.03 percent)
Four of last six governments have been minority governments, each supported by minority of the voters. Only two were majority governments, none of which were supported by majority of the voters.
Only two governments since 1944 had a majority of the vote. (1984 and 1958)
Only three since 1921 -- 1984, 1948 and 1940.
Only three before 1921. This includes Borden's much-discredited election in 1917.
Usually 1921 is taken as start of third parties, But it seems that provincially-based third parties, or Independent candidates of various stripes did take enough votes to deprive leading party (the government party) from having majority of votes even in Canada's second election. This happened even more often after 1921.
Jean Chrétien's Liberals in 1997 won majority with less than 40 percent of the vote. Chrétien won with just 38 per cent of the vote in that election against a divided right.
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FOUR WRONG-WINNER ELECTIONS
The only possible exception to this theory of third-party as cause of minority rule could have been Canada's wrong-winner elections. If a party received a majority of the vote but another party received more seats, then it would not have been caused by a "third party." But that never happened.
One wrong-winner election produced a majority government
One party takes the most votes but a different party took more seats.
One party takes a majority of the seats.
1896 is the only time a wrong-winner election produced a majority government in Canada's history.
The Liberals took a majority of the seats.
The Liberal party took more seats than the Conservative party, but the Conservative party took more votes.
No party took a majority of the votes.
In part this odd victory was caused by small voting blocks taking ten percent of the vote, leaving only 90 percent of the votes to be split between the two main parties.
in 1896 the oddly-named farmers group Patrons of Industry took four percent of the vote. Independent candidates of a variety of stripes took about three percent. The Nationalist parties (the label meaning different things in different provinces) and the McCarthyite party also took more than one percent of the vote each. The Protestant Protective Association took almost one percent as well.
Three wrong-winner elections of minority governments
One party took the most votes but a different party took more seats.
No party took a majority of the seats.
2019 Justin Trudeau 33 percent of the vote (Conservatives got 34 percent)
1979 Clark's Conservative minority government (36 percent of the vote) (P.E.T.'s Liberal got 40 percent of the vote)
1957 Liberal got more votes (41 percent of the votes) but Diefenbaker's Conservatives (with 39 percent of the votes) took more seats. Conservatives formed minority government, propped up by Social Credit MPs.
The next year Diefenbaker rolled the dice. He called an early election, hoping for a larger seat count. This is a problem with FPTP. Governments are always hoping to better their position through small, perhaps short-term, changes in popularity. These small shifts are inflated through FPTP, so they lead governments to call elections more readily than would happen under more reliable PR. (Suffering the common calamity of a small party that had propped up a larger one, SC was trounced in the 1958 election, losing all its seats.)
1979 Liberals took more votes (but a minority of the votes), but Joe Clark's Conservatives took less votes and more seats to take minority government. This government only lasted nine months.
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Early minority government -- 1891
in 1891 Macdonald formed a minority government with only 49 percent of the vote. Independent candidates of a variety of stripes took about three percent of vote and eight seats.
As well, another five seats came to it without benefit of a vote. Five Conservatives were elected by acclamation so the Conservative party's votes gave it 112 seats (a majority) with only 49 percent of the vote.
Effect of acclamations is often overlooked. in the case of Alberta 1917 election, the Liberal government does not seem so over-represented compared to its vote tally. But five of its MLAs were elected automatically due to wartime service, without any voting. If you take these five away and then compare the seat count to the vote tally, the usual large over-representation accorded the largest party under FPTP becomes apparent.
Early minority government -- 1872
1872 was the first minority federal government in Canada, due to Independents taking 6 seats.
1872 Macdonald 39 percent of the vote (combined Cons and Lib-Cons).
The Liberals only 34 percent of the vote. The main parties took only 73 percent of the vote between them.
This left enough votes loose for six independent of various stripes to be elected.
(see my blog "1872 election produced...").
1993 stands out as democratic disaster.
1993 saw a false-majority election of the party in power and a twice-over wrong-winner election of the Official Opposition. Chretien's Liberals won majority government with only a minority of the votes (41 percent). It was the leading party so at least it was not a wrong-winner election. The Bloc Quebecois took 14 percent of the vote and more seats than any other party except the Liberals so became the Official Opposition. This was odd because they were not a national party and were separatist in sentiment. It was also against voters' sentiment.
Two other opposition parties had taken more votes (but fewer seats) than the BQ, and thus were more deserving to be named Official Opposition. The P-Cs had taken more votes (16 percent) than the BQ. But won only a few seats. Even the NDP with 7 percent of the vote took more seats than the P-Cs whose support was split by the Reform Party's recent emergence. Preston Manning's Reform Party also took more votes than the BQ (19 percent) but like the P-Cs fewer seats than the BQ so were ignored when it came time to name the Official Opposition.
We need to change from FPTP.
Thanks for reading.
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Other notes
Minority governments used to be relatively rare; only 12 of the 37 elections between 1867 and 2000 produced minorities. Many of those governments emerged during specific eras. There were three minorities in the 1920s and then four between 1957 and 1965).
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